What can I say? Buffalo and Washington both steamrolled their opponents like monster trucks crushing a row of flaming porta-potties. That’s 13-0 for the season. Meanwhile, my own flesh and blood treats my advice like it’s written in invisible ink. Last weekend, my grandson-in-law nodded politely at my carefully calculated picks, then promptly bet on his Packers instead while painting his beard green. He traveled all the way to Cleveland just to watch his money evaporate faster than spilled beer on hot asphalt. The young bulls always think they know better than the old bull who’s been grazing this pasture since the 50’s.

This week, the public (whose wagers actually create the odds that are set by bookmakers), are finally sobering up. The overlays are scarcer than hair on my scalp, but my algorithm is still spitting out four golden tickets: Lions (ferocious), Chargers (electrifying), Rams (horny—get it?), and Vikings (pillaging). Will I hit 17-0? Probably not. Even my pristine system will eventually hiccup.

Here’s something juicy my spreadsheets belched out: a head coach matters about as much as the brand of clipboard they’re clutching. What wins championships? Raw talent, period. I learned this back in the 70’s when I first started messing with spreadsheets and algorithms. I also experienced it personally. For example, when I coached my daughter’s 6th-grade traveling basketball squad to a 25-7 record I strutted around thinking I was the Phil Jackson of pubescent hoops. Then I watched those nine great kids grew up and dominate high school sports like mini-Serenas. From volleyball, to soccer, to basketball, to softball and tennis, they began earning high school “varsity” letters in 8th grade (yes 8th grade) and kept it up for the next 5 years. They weren’t great because of my brilliant speeches—they were great because their natural talent and desire allowed them to run circles around normal kids.

Look at the NFL’s seven new (theoretically great) head coaches—Bears, Jets, Raiders, Jags, Cowboys, and Saints. Collectively winning at a miserable 28.5% clip, going 6-15. Last year? Same franchises, different (theoretically awful) coaches, identical 28.5% winning percentage. Coincidence? Ha! That’s like thinking the Titanic sank because someone flushed at the wrong time. It’s all about the quality of the roster, folks. Coaches just rearrange the deck chairs while GMs and money men steer the ship.

Anyway, good luck to family and friends this weekend!