Last week my predictions stumbled like a drunk uncle at a wedding reception, going 2-2 while my spreadsheets sobbed in the corner. Still, my 17-4 season record remains impressive enough to make me insufferable at family gatherings.

For Week 6, I’m hitching my wagon to the Packers’ ground game (basically a bunch of corn-fed Wisconsin boys pushing people around), the Commanders’ defense, and the Raiders’ vertical passing attack (which is just football-speak for “throw it really far and pray”). Yes, I’m betting against my beloved Bears again, a team with the defensive coordination of a toddler trying to eat spaghetti in the dark.

The underdogs are sparkling this week. Miami—playing at home somehow sits as 4.5-point underdogs ($162 for $100 on the moneyline). And Detroit’s offensive line—basically five angry refrigerators with legs—is a 1.5-point underdog. Betting on these teams could pay off bigger than that Nigerian prince who’s been emailing you.

Good luck to all.