The Decline and Future of American Horse Racing

On a bright afternoon many years ago, I gathered with a small group of individuals involved in the horse racing industry in my state. The scent of freshly cut grass and hay filled the air as we sat around a large table, discussing the current state of affairs.

We were facing some challenges, but there was also reason for optimism due to developments such as a card club and a lucrative new partnership with a local tribal group. The card club had provided much-needed subsidy funding for the race track for several years, while the tribal group had just agreed to make a generous payment over 10 years to prevent any attempts by racing interests to push for slot machines. It was a delicate balance, but one that had helped keep the industry thriving in our state.

The state’s lack of progress weighed heavily on my mind, especially in an industry that was already lagging behind. While other states were aggressively pushing for improvements and embracing new forms of gambling, our leaders seemed satisfied with a limited arrangement with the tribal group, which had an expiration date looming over us like a dark cloud. Despite the promises made by negotiators, it was clear to me that this agreement would eventually dissolve, leaving us with a missed opportunity for progress and further falling behind our neighboring states in terms of gaming and revenue generation.

It was a frustrating and conflicting situation, knowing that there was potential for growth but feeling held back by outdated thinking and unwillingness to change.

In the past, it seemed like racing was destined to fail in smaller states without external support. No matter how much money was generated through bets, it could never cover the high expenses associated with the sport – from purse amounts paid out to race owners to providing top-notch care for the horses. Racing simply couldn’t sustain itself on its own. This struggle was not limited to one state; it was a harsh reality faced by racing communities across the country.

Desperate for survival, racing had turned to alternative forms of gaming for sustenance and subsidies. Other states pushed hard for Historical Horse Racing (a form of slot machine based on prior races) and Sportsbooks which everybody with a lick of sense knew were on the horizon. Those elements were added to other states repertoires.

With each new development, it became clear that racing’s sole purpose was to act as a loss leader while other forms of gambling reaped the rewards and subsidized the unprofitable racing product. It was a vicious cycle of dependency and exploitation, with no end in sight.

As I sat in many meetings, pouring over data and statistics, it became painfully clear that the world of Thoroughbred racing was facing a rapid decline. The numbers showed a steady downward trend, and it was impossible to ignore the inevitable consequences. It was clear that second and third tier racing environments were struggling to survive, and without significant changes to the economic model, the industry would have to drastically contract in order to stay afloat.

As I presented my findings locally, I couldn’t help but feel a sense of urgency. Subsidies, while helpful in the short term, could only delay the inevitable decline of the core racing product. It was losing its competitive edge against other forms of entertainment and gambling, and something needed to be done before it was too late.

Like I had anticipated, my findings in an industry as ancient as time itself were met with doubt and criticism. My regression analysis charts and trend illustrations were picked apart, as if the mathematical equations were merely opinions rather than supported evidence. (Can we really argue against 2 plus 2 equaling 4?) But the true difficulty arose when I suggested implementing changes to improve local racing and breeding. It felt like trying to move a mountain that had been rooted in place for centuries.

Though the breeding issues were unique to my state, due to antiquated misunderstanding of behavior, the proposed solutions were not just opinions, but promising strategies supported by solid evidence and research. These interconnected ideas form a comprehensive plan to revitalize the struggling sport yet today.

The first proposal involves creating faster and dual saddling paddocks, which would inject excitement and increase betting activity, making races occur more frequently thus enhancing the thrill for spectators. However, the plan goes beyond just increasing pace and action for the consumers. It also includes implementing cutting-edge technology (high definiton sound and visual monitoring everywhere at the racetrack) to prevent cheating proactively, rather than merely detecting it after the fact.

Yes, it is necessary to restore trust and integrity to the sport, as fans are flocking to other more trustworthy and action oriented sports and entertainment activities. Additionally, the establishment of centralized laboratories and a single regulatory body in the United States would ensure consistency and fairness for all participants, creating a more equitable competitive environment. An obvious issue which continues to be fought by horse people and regulators who wish to maintain their power on a state by state basis.

We also need to establish a new system that prioritizes the protection and well-being of horses in racing. This involves implementing mandatory testing for “every horse” after each race, rather than just the top finishers. (Whoever came up with the idea of only drug testing the top two finishers clearly didn’t understand how cheating works in the real world.) This system, plus the full video and audio monitoring of every backside, would serve as a comprehensive safety net, ensuring the health of these majestic creatures.

The once dull and empty infields could also be transformed into vibrant spaces, filled with cheering fans and colorful picnic blankets. The access to the animals, new viewing perspectives and picnic type atmosphere would be full of excitement and energy as everyone gathers to celebrate these magnificent animals.

Racing surfaces themselves also need a comprehensive overhaul; safer options like lush, verdant turf and state-of-the-art artificial tracks should replace the perilous dirt paths that posed greater risks to both the majestic horses and their skilled riders. The emerald grass would cushion hooves and provide secure footing, while the meticulously engineered synthetic surfaces would offer consistent traction in all weather conditions.

Instead of dangerous, breakneck sprints that push horses to their physical limits, I passionately advocate for longer, more secure race distances that would not only protect the noble steeds from injury but also captivate audiences with heart-pounding, suspenseful finishes. Again the data, and even European examples, speak for themselves.

Finally, reimagining betting structures to include thrilling head-to-head matchup wagers or nail-biting plus/minus finishing positions or lengths would add an electrifying extra layer of excitement to the wagering experience. These innovative betting options would tantalize the senses and get pulses racing, enticing jaded old fans back to the track while drawing curious new spectators into this storied tradition steeped in pageantry and drama. The roar of the crowd, the thundering of hooves, and the heart-pounding anticipation of a photo finish would be amplified by these engaging new ways to test one’s luck and judgment against the unpredictable nature of horse racing.

Carefully curated and extensively researched, every recommendation is supported by proper statistical analysis. Countless studies had uncovered a common factor for the decline in fan engagement: the pace of events. Gone were the nostalgic days of Seabiscuit, where eager fans could devote their undivided attention to one event every 40 minutes. In today’s fast-paced world, there seemed to be an endless stream of rapid-fire action available to fans around the globe, leaving little time for reflection or anticipation.

The dark cloud of cheating has long loomed over the racing world, constantly making its way into the headlines. Despite efforts to address the issue, it persists in various forms beyond just performance-enhancing drugs. One major area of concern is the lack of preparation given to predicted favorites for races, leaving them vulnerable to underhanded tactics. Moreover, regulatory agencies fall short in their responsibilities by not fully testing all competitors for potential drug interactions, and neglecting advanced technology that could monitor behaviors leading up to races. The race to win has led some to cut corners and bend the rules, tarnishing the integrity of the sport.

For years, numerous meticulous studies have consistently shown that dirt track races and short distance sprints pose a significantly higher risk compared to their counterparts on lush turf and longer tracks. The numbers speak for themselves: horses thundering across unforgiving dirt, their hooves pounding relentlessly, are at a much greater risk of sustaining catastrophic injuries.

Despite increasing national attention and pressure to address the high number of equine fatalities, the American racing industry stubbornly clings to tradition and disregards their own data, seemingly turning a blind eye to these alarming trends. Instead they take baby steps and advertise slight fatality improvements while knowing they could do so much more. Their reluctance to make sweeping changes is evident, like a jockey refusing to alter course even when danger is imminent.

Moreover, the wagering landscape in horse racing appears almost quaint and outdated when compared to the sophisticated, instantaneous betting options available in other sports. While fans of football, basketball, and other popular games can place bets with lightning speed on a myriad of outcomes, horse racing’s wagering system feels antiquated and cumbersome. The contrast is stark: a world of real-time, in-game betting opportunities versus the comparatively limited and slow-paced options at the track.

This wagering option disparity renders horse racing’s betting experience almost laughable, a relic of a bygone era struggling to keep pace with the rapid evolution of sports gambling.

The traditional leaders of the racing world still yearn for a simple solution to rejuvenate their declining sport. They reminisce about the glory days, when horse racing was thriving. However, the challenges they face are complex and interconnected. Despite their desire for a quick fix, it is evident that multiple approaches are necessary to tackle the underlying problems.

Something must be done to truly address the core issues surrounding entertainment value, wagering participation, and maintaining integrity. Meanwhile, I struggle with conflicting emotions of fondness for the past and the recognition that change is imperative for the sustainability of horse racing.

As I reflect on my childhood memories, I can’t help but feel a sense of sadness for the once grand racetracks that have now fallen into disrepair. The cruel hand of time has left its mark on these once glorious structures. Some, like Arlington Park in Chicago where The Arlington Million used to be held, have been demolished.

Out of the 100 racetracks that stood in 1975, only 43 remain today. It seems inevitable that all but the major event racetracks wil eventually disappear as each day passes. The legacy of Thoroughbred racing is slowly fading away, evident in the dwindling number of foals born annually: only around 17,000 today compared to the 45,000 born in 1975.

The impact of this decline has hit the West Coast particularly hard. Beloved racetracks like Hollywood Park and Bay Meadows are now only fond memories. Smaller tracks, such as Portland Meadows and Yakima Meadows, have also succumbed to this inevitable fate. The remaining strongholds, like Del Mar and Santa Anita, fight desperately to stay afloat, while lesser-known tracks like Los Alamitos and Emerald Downs struggle to keep going. It’s truly tragic that despite all this, the solutions to racing’s problems remain unchanged and ignored until it’s too late to save the once-great second and third tier tracks that have already disappeared into obscurity.

The current state of American racing is a sharp contrast to its glory days. In the last decade alone, from 2014 through 2023, wagering revenue has only increased by a measly 10.4%. However, when taking into account the 28.7% inflation rate during that same period, it becomes clear that this growth is not as significant as it appears.

In real terms, wagering revenue has actually decreased by another 14.2% over the past ten years. And to make matters worse, the latest figures for this year show a decline of 3.2% in revenue compared to the previous year. When adjusting for inflation once again, this means that real revenue has dropped by a staggering 6.4% in just one year. The decline of American racing shows no signs of slowing down, and the numbers speak for themselves.

Every May, the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races captivate viewers with their glamour and excitement, showcasing the thrill of horse racing. However, I can’t help but feel torn about the sport. While these high-profile events draw in millions, it’s hard to ignore the thousands of foals that are bred each year but never make it to the track. The smaller-scale races with modest prize money reveal a different, more difficult side of the industry – one filled with struggle and decline. And unfortunately, this means that second and third tier racetracks will continue to disappear.

Part of me still thrills at the pageantry and tradition, the thundering hooves and cheering crowds. But another part sees the flaws – shortsighted leadership, shrinking audiences, and ethical concerns about animal welfare. I want to embrace racing’s magic and history, but I’m increasingly troubled by its systemic issues. The sport seems caught between its glorious past and an uncertain future, leaving fans like me torn between nostalgia and disillusionment.


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