I have spent a long time around people who confuse confidence for credibility. I have sat in rooms where a man with a firm handshake and a laminated chart convinced a roomful of otherwise sensible adults that he had located the truth, and I have watched those same adults nod along because the chart had a legend and the man had a title.
What I trust is narrower and harder to fake: numbers gathered over time, tested against themselves, reviewed by people with professional incentives to find the holes in them. Religion does not meet that standard, and neither does the rotating cast of outrage that fills the average news cycle. But here is the part that tends to make people uncomfortable—a study with a sample size of forty, published once, confirmed by nobody, waved around as settled fact, is not science. It is a rumor with a footnote. The difference matters enormously, and in my experience, almost nobody can tell you what it is.
Throughout history, the gleaming veneer of proclaimed science has paved roads to ruin with the best of intentions. It is a grim parade of white coats and peer-reviewed journals leading the faithful toward cliffs they could not see, armed with data that was elegant, persuasive, and catastrophically wrong. Such is my fear with current “scientific trends” like GLP-1. Two of my daughters today take it, and they have even suggested their 6 foot 4 inch 250 pound 74 year dad give it a try because it works for them.
You see, the bottle said Bayer. It said non-addictive. It said for children, right there on the label, and the pharmacist nodded when it was bought. They gave it to the babies for coughs, and they quieted down. Unfortunately, the active ingredient was initially heroin or diacetylmorphine.
They worked calomel into the baby’s gums with their fingertips because the screaming has gone on for three days and the powder is what the doctor gave them. It was mercurous chloride.
They switched from lard to Crisco because it was a product of modern science. The same hydrogenation process that gave it its clean white solidity produced trans fat, which was not banned until a century later.
Elsewhere, a chemist needed a liquid solvent for a new drug and reaches for diethylene glycol because it dissolves the compound cleanly. The paperwork does not yet require him to ask what it does to a kidney. Over one hundred people die, the majority of them children, before the bottles are recalled.
The doctor lite a Camel in the surgery. The advertisement for it ran in the Journal of the American Medical Association, showing a man in a white coat holding a chart in one hand and a cigarette in the other. Down the hall, nurses brought new mothers a tray after they’ve nursed, offering an array of cigarette packs—Lucky Strike, Chesterfield, Pall Mall—while the infant dozes in a clear-sided bassinet beside the bed.
At the army induction center, a sergeant handed cartons of cigarettes to boys telling them it’s good for the nerves, part of a balanced field ration.
I used to hear the low growl of the truck before I could see it, a slow-moving tanker trailing a thick, sweet-smelling fog that settled over our Carpentersville Illinois lawns and sidewalks. My buddies and I would run behind it, laughing, our arms outstretched as we chase the cloud. The chemical mist would cling to our skin and clothes, leaving a faint powdery residue we rarely thought to wipe away. Little did we know the man who discovered DDT received the Nobel Prize for his discovery.
During the years during which I was born and growing up as a child they gave pregnant wives thalidomide for nausea, and the bottle promised restful sleep and safety. Then mothers started counting fingers and toes as more than ten thousand children were born with horrible defects caused by the drug called “remarkably safe” by pharmaceutical companies.
My father was prescribed OxyContin for his back, because the clinical literature was clear, and fewer than one percent of patients develop dependence—it said so right there in the package insert. The company later pleads guilty to criminal misbranding.
They gave other fathers Vioxx for their knees because the gastric profile is cleaner than ibuprofen and the doctor read the trials. Then it was pulled from shelves in September of 2004, and the FDA’s own safety officer goes before the Senate and estimates that somewhere between eighty-eight thousand and one hundred and thirty-nine thousand Americans suffered excess cardiac events during the five years it was on the market.
Science, based on what? Short term, incomplete and questionable studies? Each tragedy came with the full weight of institutional authority: the embossed letterhead of a professional society, the dense columns of a peer-reviewed journal, the calm certainty of a man in a starched white coat holding a pointer before a detailed chart. The people who followed instructions were not slow; they were doing what any reasonable person does—deferring to qualified experts. They placed their trust in the systems society had built to separate signal from noise.
So now I wonder which of today’s assurances, printed on glossy paper and delivered with a firm handshake, will my great-grandchildren one day read aloud in a tone of bewildered horror?
And people wonder how I learned to always demand to see the core longitudinal data before acknowledging truth. Such is life.










