Unveiling the NFL Home Field Advantage: Statistical Trends and Future Predictions

After I shared my thoughts on NFL quarterbacks this morning, I was bombarded with questions from curious followers. While I plan to post predictions soon, there’s another crucial factor in successful betting: home field advantage. For years, it’s been valued at around 3 points, but the COVID pandemic seemed to make it obsolete. Some still argue that it doesn’t exist, even though it’s present in nearly all sports events. And now, as things slowly return to normal, home field advantage is back in the NFL. This statistical graph shows historical averages over time – but can we really rely on it anymore?

Yes you can! It currently averages around 1.5 points per team. However, you have to understand how it varies by location. Others may disagree but based upon a 5 and 3 year study, historical averages, and a regression analysis, I place the home field “points” advantage by team as follows this coming season:

Dolphins 5
Broncos 4
Cowboys 4
Lions 3
Titans 3
Browns 4
Falcons 3
Giants 3
Bears 3
Raiders 3
Steelers 3
Panthers 2
Bills 2
Colts 2
Jets 2
Packers 2
Bucs 2
Seahawks 2
Chargers 2
Bengals 2
Jags 2
Ravens 2
Rams 2
Pats 1
Vikings 1
Texans 1
Chiefs 1
49ers 0
Eagles 0
Saints 0
Wash. 0
Cards 0

Yep, this can be quite significant, unless of course the Eagles are playing the Cardinals. Haha.