NFL Super Bowl Prediction: Leveraging Data Over Expert Opinions

The NFL season starts tonight but do you ever ponder the curious lack of accountability for so-called “experts” who make bold predictions? They confidently declare winners and champions, week after week and year after year, but rarely do they own up to their accuracy unless they happen to be correct. It’s a strange phenomenon, isn’t it?

It’s a question that has likely crossed many minds, but the truth is rarely acknowledged. The fact of the matter is, most so-called “experts” are not as knowledgeable or accurate as they claim to be. They rely on speculation and opinions rather than solid evidence and data. Their words may sound impressive at first, but when put to the test, their predictions often fall short. In reality, true expertise is backed by a track record of successful outcomes and proven results, not just empty promises and grandiose claims. So the next time someone claims to have all the answers, take a moment to consider if they truly have the “statistical” credentials and experience to back it up.

It’s hard to deny the expertise of those who have succeeded in their fields, and yet it’s equally difficult to trust them when it comes to predicting the unpredictable. As I listen to Troy Aikman’s play analysis or Terry Bradshaw’s insights, I can’t help but wonder if they truly understand the complexities of predictive capabilities. Are they just simple personalities with no grasp on what lies ahead, relying on their natural talents alone? And yet, despite my doubts, I know that the majority of their audience will still take their advice without question.

It’s frustrating to see these so-called “experts” spout off about prediction while not understanding statistical credibility, correlations or a simple regression analysis from a hole in the head. They may be confident in their predictions, but deep down, they must know that they are just as clueless as the rest of us. Are they simply charlatans, selling false promises and leading others astray? Or do they genuinely believe in their abilities, even if those abilities hold very little weight in the grand scheme of things?

Twenty years ago, I delved into a study comparing the accuracy of experts versus statistical predictions. Surprisingly, the experts came up short in a time when statistical capabilities were just starting to emerge and the tools and data available today were still in their infancy. And if you doubt my credibility on the subject, that study still stands as proof that sometimes even the most knowledgeable individuals can be outperformed by statistical analysis.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207007000672

With all of this said I will make another NFL pre-season Super Bowl winner prediction. I have hit on 3 of the last 4 and this season my data analysis places the Kansas City Chiefs on the top of the pack once again. Yep, I think they will get their 3rd in a row unless injuries take out key players. In the futures bets this year the Chiefs are the 5 to 1 favorite, meaning you will win $500 for a $100 bet, and collect $600.

Best bets this week, Buffalo -280 and Chicago -185. Okay bets are New Orleans -185 and New York Giants +105. In fact, betting the moneyline as a parlay on just Buffalo, Chicago and New Orleans will currently pay $317 for a $100 bet. Good Luck.