The topic at hand is the NFL coaching carousel, and in particular, the new Bear’s head coach Ben Johnson.

As always, I take the opinions of football pundits with a grain of salt. They are often proven wrong by their own predictions, which can be dizzying to keep up with. But why are they so often wrong? It’s because they lack an understanding of predictive analytics and allow irrelevant factors to influence their thinking. Instead of examining actual results, they inject emotional rhetoric into every aspect of their analysis. They give equal weight to a coach’s past playing experience as they do to their fictional notions of motivation. Even when they do consider “coaching” results, it is usually done in broad strokes rather than delving into specific data points. For instance, has any talking head looked into Aaron Glenn’s defensive coaching record for the Detroit Lions? Not likely. But I can tell you why he will fail miserably, just like all the other New York Jets coaches hired by the ignorant owner Woody Stephens

Let it be known, even a sightless bird will occasionally stumble upon a morsel of sustenance. In other words, despite the constant mediocrity and incompetence of owners like the Bear’s George McCaskey, and their habit of hiring joke coaches on the cheap, after fifteen long years without a single playoff appearance they may have finally stumbled upon the elusive prize they so desperately seek.

Ben Johnson is the blazing ray of hope for the blind and misguided McCaskey. With his impeccable coaching abilities, he has produced outstanding results that leave no room for doubt or criticism. Leading the Detroit Lions’ offense with an iron fist, they have dominated the charts as the top-ranked team in yards per game over the past three years. And their consistency is unmatched, never falling below second place in 2023 and 2024, and a still respectable fourth place in 2022. But don’t let these impressive stats distract you from the dismal performance of Detroit’s defense during those same three years – constantly hovering near the bottom of the rankings at 26th in 2021, 23rd in 2023, and dead last at 32nd in 2022. (Yep, Detroit’s defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s chances of success as a head coach in New York are non-existent).

To truly grasp the gravity of these interconnected outcomes, one must delve into the crucial factor of time of possession. Despite boasting a top 5 offense for three consecutive years, Detroit’s defense was barely on the field, yet their opponents still managed to rack up insane yards and scoring. In stark contrast, their abysmal defense struggled to wrestle the ball away from their adversaries, resulting in their own offense suffering from limited possessions. And yet, even with the odds stacked against them, this powerhouse Ben Johnson offensive team still reigned supreme in the league.

The burning question remains: was Ben Johnson truly a mastermind on the field, and just how disastrous was Aaron Glen’s performance? No one can deny their respective successes and failures, but what does that mean for their future as head coaches? My prediction is that Ben Johnson will rise to greatness once again, leading his team to victory with ease. As for Aaron Glenn, I have little faith in his ability to navigate the rough waters of New York as a head coach – joining the ranks of those before him who have failed miserably.

Out of all the coaches in the league, there are only two that I have complete faith in: Pete Carroll, who leads the Las Vegas team, and Mike Vrabel, head coach of the New England squad. These two men have proven themselves time and time again with their exceptional head coaching skills, and I believe they will thrive under more intelligent and capable owners like Robert Kraft and Mark Davis, Davis owns 47% of the Raiders. And let’s not forget about Tom Brady, who is heavily involved in the team’s decisions and even holds a 5% Raider ownership stake. With such a strong combination of leadership and ownership, these teams are destined for success.

The mediocre status quo in Dallas is expected, as Jerry Jones continues to hold the reins of this floundering team. To make matters worse, the team has hired Brian Schottenheimer as head coach. He is an internal yes man hire, and a lackluster offensive coach who helmed the 24th ranked offense for Dallas last year. On the other hand, there may be some hope for the Jaguars with their acquisition of Liam Coen, whose explosive offense led Tampa Bay to a third place ranking in the league last year. Yet, his true potential as a head coach remains uncertain without sufficient data to back it up.

So, Ben Johnson towers above the rest as the clear choice for the best hire. He is followed closely by Pete Carrol, Mike Vrabel, and Liam Coen, leaving the poorly run franchises in New York and Dallas to wallow in their delusions of playoff glory.