In my previous tale of wisdom—or whatever you want to call it—I promised to spill the beans on how to hit it big in Thoroughbred horse race betting. The first juicy tidbit I shared was the art of not betting on every single race like a hyper squirrel on caffeine, but rather being as picky as a cat with a new brand of kibble. It’s all about honing in on those races run on fast tracks, stretching over 6 to 10 furlongs, which is basically a mile and a quarter for those who don’t speak horse. Why, you ask? Because these races come with a treasure trove of past performance data, making them as reliable as a GPS with a full battery. By focusing on these criteria, you can dodge wild guesses, like trying to predict if a horse that’s only known fast tracks and 6-furlong sprints will perform like a diva in the rain or a marathon runner in a mile and a quarter. This strategy lets you bet with the precision of a laser-guided missile, rather than the randomness of throwing spaghetti at a wall and seeing what sticks.

In today’s wild and wacky world of horse racing, fans often dive into the murky waters of speculative handicapping as if they’re deciphering ancient scrolls. They obsess over pedigree information, parentage performance, and statistics like they’re trying to solve a crime on a detective show. While this might sound like a clever plan, it’s about as effective as using a chocolate teapot if your goal is to actually make some cash. Why, you ask? Because there are more races happening across the country each day than there are attempts by cats to knock things off tables! With this golden rule firmly in mind, I will trot out a simple example from a real race back in my old Minnesota stomping grounds. This should help shed some light on the basic principles of successful handicapping—or at least make you chuckle!

I thought I’d show off my expert horse handicapping skills with the very first race from last Saturday at Canterbury Park. Why this race, you ask? Well, because it’s as simple as trying to find your way out of a one-way maze! Just six horses galloping in a 6-furlong sprint on a track smoother than a freshly ironed shirt. The conditions were so ideal, even Mother Nature would nod approvingly. With a treasure trove of 29 past performances to sift through—nearly 5 per horse—it was like trying to choose the least awkward photo for a dating profile. At least 3 races per horse to ponder.

I delve into the world of past performances online, eagerly paying for the insights I need when I come across races that fit my specific criteria. Over time, I have explored every past performance service at my disposal, from the meticulous analyses of Thorograph to the comprehensive databases of Equibase, the intricate calculations of Ragozin, and the user-friendly interface of Brisnet, among many others. Each of these services has its own distinct advantages and drawbacks. Some, like Brisnet, rely heavily on computer-generated data, while others incorporate a blend of speed figures crafted with a touch of human expertise. After thoroughly studying the nuances between these offerings, I recommend choosing one that resonates with you and immersing yourself in its use. For the purposes of my current analysis, I am drawing upon the rich insights provided by Brisnet.

The data is like a group of rebellious teenagers—each service has its own moody version. Yet, despite their differences, they all somehow churn out speed ratings for past performances. It’s like they’re all attending the same rebellious school where algorithms are the teachers trying to whip them into shape. These algorithms work hard to make racing info as standardized as a one-size-fits-all turtleneck, no matter if the track’s as damp as a dog’s nose or the racing conditions are as wild as a squirrel on caffeine. This magical standardization lets us compare different races and contexts.

When I dive into handicapping, I tackle it like a chef preparing a soufflé—carefully sifting through ingredients to avoid a flat mess. My first move is to filter out past performances that don’t match today’s conditions, like deleting old selfies that no longer capture your best angle. I gleefully draw lines through every race on an off-track, turf, or artificial surfaces, and those races that were 7 furlongs or longer. Why bother with them?

Once I’ve trimmed the fat, I zero in on a few key factors. I jot down the winning percentages of the trainer and jockey, which are like checking Yelp reviews before choosing a restaurant. Their past success gives me a peek into their prowess. I also scrutinize the horse’s running style, revealing its pace like a dance-off between tortoises and hares. Finally, I evaluate the speed ratings for each of those chosen races, which is crucial in determining if the horse is more Usain Bolt or a leisurely marathon runner.

This streamlined strategy is as simple as pie, even when faced with 29 races. I only need to gather 12 data items about the trainer and jockey, plus an extra 3 for each of the 29 races. That’s a grand total of just 99 entries on my spreadsheet—hardly a math marathon! With the help of downloaded data files, this task becomes a cakewalk.

Now, my worn-out and frequently deflated friends from the horse racing world often bombard me with questions about everything beyond my key factors. But guess what? They’re as relevant as a raincoat in the Sahara! From the sire’s identity to past race classifications, fractional times, and the names of the horses that once pranced on the board—it’s all inconsequential because these details are already tangled up in the algorithms that spit out the speed and pace ratings.

And now, ladies and gentlemen, hold onto your hats because I’m about to reveal the biggest secret since sliced bread—something that was spilled decades ago but remains about as understood as quantum physics to a cat. “Pace makes the Race”! Yes, indeed, a concept I once breezed past in my youthful naïveté has since become my golden ticket to success. Horses that zip to the lead while sipping tea and nibbling on scones without any pressure often breeze past the finish line with a smug look on their faces. Likewise, the mighty closing horses, who weave through the herd like a hot knife through butter without wrestling other closers for a spot on the inside or taking a scenic route wide, also bask in glory!

You might be scratching your head, wondering how I can claim these basics are crucial. Well, let me pull out my 60-year-old magic wand of racing wisdom and sprinkle some enlightenment. I’ve spent over six decades examining races, sharpening my tech-savvy analytical skills to spot patterns and connections where others see only a hodgepodge of stories. My core principles are like a secret sauce that outsmarts the odds set by betting pools, beating the racetrack or house take by a whopping 20%!

In my next mind-blowing post or chapter, where my method picked the exact order of top three finishers, I’ll peek behind the curtain and reveal some of the cells in my spreadsheets, along with the formulas I use. This way, you can either set off on your own merry experimental adventure or use the insights to give your future handicapping a boost. But before that, let me sum up the ten rules that are as crucial as finding the remote in a couch cushion!

1. Focus your handicapping exclusively on races that span a distance of 6 to 9 furlongs, as these particular lengths offer a unique credibility that makes them intriguing to analyze and limits variation.

2. Utilize one of the renowned speed rating past performance services to collect a comprehensive array of data. These services offer detailed insights that are crucial for assessing a horse’s potential performance.

3. Incorporate the effectiveness of both the trainer and jockey into your evaluation. The skills and strategies of those guiding the horse are pivotal factors that can significantly influence the outcome of a race.

4. Exclude any past performances from your analysis if the distance and track conditions do not closely mirror those of today’s race. Similar conditions provide a more accurate reflection of how the horse might perform.

5. Consistently employ pace rating data that captures both early speed and closing speed. Understanding how a horse manages different stages of the race can provide valuable insights into its overall potential against the racing field being encountered today.

6. Consistently utilize speed rating data to gauge the horse’s velocity and stamina over the specified furlongs. This data algorithm serves as a cornerstone in predicting race outcomes.

7. Always weigh past performances based on their recency. The more recent the performance, the more relevant it is, as it reflects the horse’s current form and fitness level.

8. Assess the probability of a horse winning by synthesizing all the gathered data. This analysis will help you form a holistic view of the horse’s chances in the race.

9. Determine the true odds of a horse winning and compare these with the final track odds. This comparison will guide you in deciding whether placing a bet is a strategic move.

10. Always define your bankroll and risk taking level, and what works for me may not work for you. From entering data correctly to the creation of programmed formulas, to the methods used to weight recent races or determine probabilities, there is no such thing as a sure thing. Long term success may be realized but variation dictates that many consecutive losses are common in a sport where any horse can win at any time.

More to come.