Author: astarthoraolcom
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NFL Reflections: Friendship, Loss, and Football Memories
NFL football has been an integral part of my life for over 70 years. Growing up in Chicago, I became a devoted fan of the Bears at a young age and have carried that loyalty with me throughout my career, which has taken me to various NFL cities such as Green Bay, Seattle, Baltimore, Minneapolis,…
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Unveiling the NFL Home Field Advantage: Statistical Trends and Future Predictions
After I shared my thoughts on NFL quarterbacks this morning, I was bombarded with questions from curious followers. While I plan to post predictions soon, there’s another crucial factor in successful betting: home field advantage. For years, it’s been valued at around 3 points, but the COVID pandemic seemed to make it obsolete. Some still…
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The Evolution of NFL Betting: Quarterbacks Aren’t Everything, They’re the Only Thing
The NFL season is upon us and the countdown to the first regular season game has begun. My mind is consumed with betting strategies, analyzing data, and making predictions. As a die-hard Bears fan, it pains me to admit that I have made more money betting against them in the past decade than I could…
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Beware of Anecdotes: Immigrants and Crime:
Anecdotes can be powerful weapons in the hands of those with no real evidence to back up their claims. They will use them to distract and discredit any valid arguments, preying on the gullible and easily swayed. These tactics are rampant in politics and advertising, constantly seeking to manipulate the vulnerable. We must remain vigilant…
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The Dangers of Biased Reporting: Unveiling the Reality of Crime Rates
The political circus is in full swing once again, and the media vultures are circling overhead, eagerly picking at the remains of any story that aligns with their chosen tribe. But truth is a foreign concept to them, as they twist and manipulate facts to fit their own agendas. The result? False claims and baseless…
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From Leadership Ignorance to Intelligence: Focus on Skills Dumb Ass
The art of predictive gambling is not unlike any other skill. It is not dependent on raw talent, but rather on dedication, focus and practice. To truly comprehend this concept, imagine a simple scenario: the differences between luck, capability and skill. One young basketball player I coached, standing at just 5 feet 4 inches tall,…
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Blue Dancer: A Simple Horse Racing Data Experiment
Throughout the years, I have been involved in numerous seminars on the complex and ever-changing topics of probability, prediction, and variation. Each time, I discovered that it was far more crucial to explain the intricacies of the journey rather than simply providing superficial advice on how to choose wagers or investments. Why is this? Because…
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The Transformative Power of Rational Decision Making
Wisdom often slips through our fingers like grains of sand. Countless individuals dedicate their lives to sharpening their skills and amassing knowledge, blissfully unaware that these endeavors might not hold the significance they presume. To truly attain wisdom and achieve success, one must master the art of action. In essence, it is crucial to understand…
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Ghosts and Reality: Separating Fact from Fiction
Through my research, I have unearthed a multitude of false beliefs, myths, and misconceptions that plague the minds of people. These dangerous ideas fuel irrational behaviors and extreme reactions, from the benign belief in a flat Earth or ghosts to the harmful notions that COVID is a hoax or that migrants are solely responsible for…
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The Decline and Future of American Horse Racing
On a bright afternoon many years ago, I gathered with a small group of individuals involved in the horse racing industry in my state. The scent of freshly cut grass and hay filled the air as we sat around a large table, discussing the current state of affairs. We were facing some challenges, but there…
Old Man Pondering 