“Without a grasp on random variation and probabilities, one’s intelligence will always be infected by myths and emotions.”

Be it acquiring a new home or horse, leading a sports team to victory, indulging in fatty meals, gambling recklessly on football matches, investing in stocks, or enduring toxic jobs and relationships, the ability to predict outcomes is what separates the successful from the mediocre. And to master this skill, one must delve into the complex science of statistical analysis and understanding variation. Fail to do so, and failure will surely follow.

It is imperative to understand that the ability to predict events accurately is completely irrelevant when it comes to certain occurrences. Take the simple act of flipping a coin, for example. In this case, I will never be able to out-predict you because the outcome is purely random.

There is an equal 50% chance that either heads or tails will appear. However, just for the fun of it, let’s imagine that I have a belief – or perhaps a little superstition – that wearing my shirt inside out will increase my chances of getting a heads on the coin flip. And lo and behold, after turning my shirt inside out, I manage to land three consecutive heads in a row. One might think that this verifies my belief, but in reality, it simply proves that luck played a role in the outcome rather than any predictive skills on my part.

I refuse to bore you with tedious and mind-numbing coin flip probability theories. Despite my actuarial friends’ impressive intellect, I wrote these articles with the average Joe in mind. No need for complicated jargon or theoretical discussions. Instead, let’s dive right into practical examples that will make sense to anyone. Even a seemingly straightforward task like flipping a coin can involve complex calculations and theories that can leave your head spinning.

The origins of myths are often shrouded in mystery, and my crazy inside out shirt coin flipping myth is no exception. It may have stemmed from a random comment I overheard, or a questionable claim I stumbled upon online. Perhaps a seasoned coin flipper endorsed it to a group of novices, or it was touted on a televised program. It’s even possible that an old man like myself wrote a book about it. But regardless of its source, one thing remains certain – it worked. And once I saw with my own eyes the power of turning my shirt inside out to bring me riches, I became obsessed and unstoppable. Nothing can shake my belief now, for I am living proof that this strange ritual yields unimaginable success, right?

The inside out shirt myth may seem absurd, but it is just one among thousands of ludicrous beliefs that permeate our society. People blindly cling to these nonsensical ideas, like the notion that consuming red meats and cow’s milk was once considered healthy. But in the future, we will look back with horror at how such practices were accepted as truth. My apologies for this glimpse into a bleak and merciless reality.

Bill Cosby, Jared Fogle, and “all” priests were once revered as paragons of virtue and compassion. But the truth is now undeniable – their sinister actions have been exposed. Just like how dropping a single penny from the top of the Empire State building cannot end a life, the myths associated with these men’s virtue have caused immeasurable harm. Yes, I have some friends and family who moronically deny the flaws of these men despite mounds and mounds of data. Those feeble minded folks instead believe in foolish conspiracy theories.

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, some will always hold onto false beliefs, like the myth that Poinsettias are poisonous or that lightning never strikes twice in the same place. But perhaps the most shocking falsehood of all was when so-called experts declared that Donald Trump could never become President – and we all know how that turned out. The cold reality is that sometimes the most unbelievable things can actually happen.

Myths thrive on the distorted perceptions and misfortunes of unsuspecting victims. These delusions, fueled by random anecdotes masquerading as truth, are perpetuated by the manipulation of media outlets. Observing the fluctuation of the stock market index on a daily basis, we are bombarded with sensationalized headlines that falsely attribute minor shifts to major causes. These exaggerated claims only serve to fuel the chaotic frenzy, feeding into the hands of those who seek to exploit the uninformed masses, and of course, our addiction to drama.

Flipping heads three times in a row with a coin does not prove anything, nor does it increase your chances of having a successful coin flip by wearing your shirt inside out. These three flips are simply coincidental and should not be taken as evidence. However, it is difficult to explain the concept of random variation to individuals who have always relied on anecdotal observations as facts. As a result, they spend their lives worrying about and making decisions based on random events.

Without a deep understanding of random variation and probabilities, your intelligence will always be tainted by the infectious spread of myths and emotions. Yes, I do mean infected – people have fallen victim to ludicrous anecdotes, often perpetuated by the sensationalized media or deceitful charlatans. So many widely accepted beliefs are nothing but unproven and unsubstantiated myths, polluting minds with their toxic influence.

For example. despite what society may tell you, staying in a stagnant job is not a sign of stability, it’s a trap. The cold hard truth? Switching jobs can om average increase your income more in just one month compared to staying put for 3 years. But that comes with risk, conflict, and the fear of stepping out of your comfort zone. And yet, so many cling to their current job like drowning sailors to a lifeboat, never realizing they are sinking deeper into financial ruin. Don’t be like those people – take a moment to consider the wasted potential of the next 3 years if you stay stuck in your safe but stagnant job. It’s time to take a leap of faith and bet on yourself for once.

For example. despite what society may tell you, staying in a stagnant job is not a sign of stability, it’s a trap. The cold hard truth? Switching jobs can om average increase your income more in just one month compared to staying put for 3 years. But that comes with risk, conflict, and the fear of stepping out of your comfort zone. And yet, so many cling to their current job like drowning sailors to a lifeboat, never realizing they are sinking deeper into financial ruin. Don’t be like those people – take a moment to consider the wasted potential of the next 3 years if you stay stuck in your safe but stagnant job. It’s time to take a leap of faith and bet on yourself for once.

For another example, in the cutthroat world of horse racing, there is a theory known as “lone speed” that strikes fear into the hearts of seasoned bettors. It’s a handicapping theory, constantly referred to by media handicappers. Of course these handicappers wouldn’t know credible data from a regression analysis but be that as it may, they think that if a horse possesses such raw and undeniable early speed in a race that other horse do not have any early speed, that it can dominate the race without any competition.

The “lone speed” theory is widely accepted among horse racing experts. According to this theory, horses that have quick acceleration and can break away from the pack are at an advantage because they avoid the pressure of competing with other horses. This allows them to set a comfortable pace, conserve energy, and run close to the inner rail, which means they cover less distance due to the curvature of the track. Essentially, this theory suggests that a lone speed horse has a high likelihood of winning, and if such a horse can be identified using past race performances, it would be a smart bet. This theory has been tried and tested for many years in the world of horse racing.

More to come