The Truth About the Market

Just last month, I posted the truth with data links to crime and inflation statistics which currently indicate meaningful declines in both. Within hours, my inbox overflowed with triumphant messages from my red-hat-wearing readers, their comments practically glowing with self-satisfaction as they explained how their party’s iron grip on the House, Senate, and that big white mansion on Pennsylvania Avenue had single-handedly rescued America from the brink of disaster.

Then a few days ago I posted the truth about immigration enforcement in that crime and homicides are positively affected by ICE, but actually immigration crime is a false flag compared to much more serious issues like DUI’s. Yes, the data is clear, and half-ass state laws and penalties create DUI homicide claim victims at more than “400 times” the rate of homicides committed by undocumented immigrants. My liberal friends, practically tripped over themselves hitting the like button on that one.

First, I love you both. My conservative and liberal friends alike have wonderful, and some not so wonderful, traits which I appreciate. You see, variation is part of the human condition, and unlike some others I accept that. Unfortunately, many people are blinded by beliefs, while some old men like me will always only see the truth that emerges from properly analyzed data, and fight for that truth.

I know that politicians and politics are like carnival funhouse mirrors that transform reality into grotesque distortions. I watch them strut across cable news stages, chests puffed out like roosters, claiming personal responsibility for every positive indicator as if they’d personally stocked grocery shelves or balanced the nation’s checkbooks by moonlight.

This article sprouted from a jaw-dropping moment I witnessed while hunched over my laptop Wednesday afternoon, as I indulged in my embarrassing habit of watching government press conferences live. There on my screen, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi was testifying before the House Judiciary Committee regarding the DOJ’s refusal to release all the Epstein files. The irony thickened like Kentucky gravy when Bondi, pivoted to lecture house Democrats for focusing on Epstein when she thinks they should be thanking the current administration for the Dow Jones’ record climb. I nearly spilled my lukewarm coffee, and here’s why.

When you look at data, one of the many things you do is calculate special versus common cause variation, as well as evaluate trends. Here is a simple graph of the DOW over the last 100 years.

I won’t waste your time with the immensely boring calculations but tell me what you see. You should see that the stock market has always gone up, as has inflation by the way, and it’s been pretty consistent. In fact, with rare exceptions, see the pre- and post-depression period, the market has gone up very predictably and “within” common cause parameters once you properly understand the ever-increasing trend. For example, in the last 50 years alone the market has gone up 132% every decade!

In other words, any administration—whether donkey-branded Democrats with their blue ties and progressive promises or elephant-emblazoned Republicans with their red caps and traditional values—claiming credit for the inevitable expected continuing upward trend in the market is like a rooster taking credit for the sunrise, chest puffed and crowing triumphantly while the sun follows its inevitable path.

And now you know what stupid things an “Independent”old man who ponders finds funny. Such is life.