Old Man Pondering

Yesterday I had a little fun and blogged about the NFL predictions for the first week of the season. That apparently shook loose a few readers who’d been hibernating since last Thanksgiving, because my inbox promptly coughed up the political equivalent of “Okay, smart guy, what about the midterms?” As if forecasting whether the Giants cover the spread is somehow less serious than predicting which geriatric windbag will win a congressional seat in Florida. Nevertheless, here’s what this crusty, data-obsessed “Independent” sees barreling down the pike.

I vote my conscience, not my party—a habit that’ll stick until they nail my coffin shut. I like a balanced budget and personal accountability as much as the next Kentuckian, but I can’t stomach the hypocrisy, the performative outrage, or the parade of blowhards who wouldn’t know honesty if it bit them on the behind. Guess that’s just how the cookie crumbles.

Anyway, the Republicans are kicking off their mid-term convention—a spectacular waste of time and donor money. It brings to mind a hive of agitated bees, each convinced their own buzzing is a symphony while everyone else’s is just noise. Both parties operate inside their own sealed ecosystems, but Republicans in particular seem convinced that Trump’s gravitational pull within the party somehow bends the entire country toward him. It doesn’t. While they’re busy parading his endorsed primary winners—products of an insulated process—Independents and Democrats see the landscape for what it is.

Trump’s Independent Voter disapproval rating has jumped from the low 40s to the low 60s in just two years—a fifty percent climb that should set off alarm bells for anyone who reads a poll like they read a box score. That kind of shift doesn’t happen without cause. It’s a flashing warning sign the party is choosing to ignore, pointing to his support inside their own primaries as though that’s the same thing as winning a national election. It isn’t.

Conservatives’ favorite economic talking point is a house of cards. They love to point to this summer’s market highs and say, “See? Trump’s policies are working—you ought to thank him for your 401(k).” But here’s the reality: the market’s up 23% over the last two years, which averages out to 11.5% annually since he took office. What they don’t mention is that in the decade before Trump, the market climbed 133%—that’s 13.3% per year. Claiming credit for a trend that was already rolling is classic political theater, and any independent with a calculator sees right through it.

I’ve watched the numbers long enough to know a trend when I see one. Trump’s grip on the party hasn’t fortified it—it’s fractured it, like a tree struck by lightning that looks solid until you lean against it. Based on the data, I see Democrats controlling the house by a margin that’s practically a foregone conclusion at this point. The Senate will be tighter—a coin toss leaning ever so slightly—but given the momentum and the sheer weight of independent voters breaking left, I’d bet my last dollar they take that too.

Well, I bet you never thought that Independents were that important, did you? Well, they are and their ability to swing an election is significant. Republicans are facing the political equivalent of betting against the spread because you like a team’s colors. That’s a big mistake that will only be realized after the fact because you can only ignore the data, the trends, and the cold hard math staring you in the face so long. You end up holding a losing ticket and wondering how everyone else saw it coming.

Such is life.