My heart raced and my palms grew sweaty as a close friend and family member approached me, eager to ask about the truth of inflation. I had warned them countless times before that the impact of Presidents on this issue is often overestimated, but their curiosity could not be contained. With a deep breath, I…

The NFL season starts tonight but do you ever ponder the curious lack of accountability for so-called “experts” who make bold predictions? They confidently declare winners and champions, week after week and year after year, but rarely do they own up to their accuracy unless they happen to be correct. It’s a strange phenomenon, isn’t…

NFL football has been an integral part of my life for over 70 years. Growing up in Chicago, I became a devoted fan of the Bears at a young age and have carried that loyalty with me throughout my career, which has taken me to various NFL cities such as Green Bay, Seattle, Baltimore, Minneapolis,…

After I shared my thoughts on NFL quarterbacks this morning, I was bombarded with questions from curious followers. While I plan to post predictions soon, there’s another crucial factor in successful betting: home field advantage. For years, it’s been valued at around 3 points, but the COVID pandemic seemed to make it obsolete. Some still…

The NFL season is upon us and the countdown to the first regular season game has begun. My mind is consumed with betting strategies, analyzing data, and making predictions. As a die-hard Bears fan, it pains me to admit that I have made more money betting against them in the past decade than I could…

Anecdotes can be powerful weapons in the hands of those with no real evidence to back up their claims. They will use them to distract and discredit any valid arguments, preying on the gullible and easily swayed. These tactics are rampant in politics and advertising, constantly seeking to manipulate the vulnerable. We must remain vigilant…

The political circus is in full swing once again, and the media vultures are circling overhead, eagerly picking at the remains of any story that aligns with their chosen tribe. But truth is a foreign concept to them, as they twist and manipulate facts to fit their own agendas. The result? False claims and baseless…

The art of predictive gambling is not unlike any other skill. It is not dependent on raw talent, but rather on dedication, focus and practice. To truly comprehend this concept, imagine a simple scenario: the differences between luck, capability and skill. One young basketball player I coached, standing at just 5 feet 4 inches tall,…

Throughout the years, I have been involved in numerous seminars on the complex and ever-changing topics of probability, prediction, and variation. Each time, I discovered that it was far more crucial to explain the intricacies of the journey rather than simply providing superficial advice on how to choose wagers or investments. Why is this? Because…

“Without a grasp on random variation and probabilities, one’s intelligence will always be infected by myths and emotions.” Be it acquiring a new home or horse, leading a sports team to victory, indulging in fatty meals, gambling recklessly on football matches, investing in stocks, or enduring toxic jobs and relationships, the ability to predict outcomes…