Old Man Pondering

Ten More Times

May 16, 2025

I have made the decision to return to writing daily. Why, you ask? Because I’m uncertain how much longer I have the luxury of doing so. At the ripe age of 73, while in admirable health and among the few septuagenarians who remain blissfully free of prescription medications, I find myself pondering the passage of time. Just the other day, I found myself sitting before my computer, staring blankly at an Excel spreadsheet, feeling like a fool, unable to focus for what felt like an eternity.

In my earlier years, I carved out a distinct niche for myself in the business world as an underwriter. I took the bold step of assuming insurance risks by underwriting large groups of people for healthcare coverage, as well as for other forms of insurance. I set myself apart by leveraging data in ways that others couldn’t fathom.

My affinity for games and technology has always been a defining part of me. I was an early adopter, purchasing one of the first home computers, the Commodore 64, and diving into business applications like VisiCalc, one of the pioneering spreadsheet programs. The hum of technology and the allure of data have always been my companions, guiding my journey through the world of business and beyond.

Long before many of my peers even realized these tools existed, I had not only discovered them but also mastered their programming. With their help, I could deftly select winning horses at the racetracks and confidently place bets on parlay cards with bookies in those earlier days. These tools weren’t just for gambling, though; they revolutionized my work in the insurance industry. They transformed countless tedious manual calculations, those endless sums we used to wrestle with on adding machines and calculators, into seamless automated processes.

Over the years, I had penned tens of thousands of formulas within spreadsheet cells, and yet, here I was, at an impasse. Sitting in front of my computer, I intended to craft a simple formula to assess just how drastically horse racing wagering revenue had declined over the past two decades. I had diligently copied and pasted all the necessary data from the Jockey Club’s publicly available records, but now I sat there, perplexed and uncertain. It was baffling that I couldn’t recall the initial command to inscribe a formula into a cell, especially when this was a task I had performed tens of thousands of times over the past 50 years. How could something so familiar suddenly feel so elusive?

Eventually, I threw in the towel on recalling that straightforward command and turned to Google AI for help, asking how to write the formula. Naturally, the AI reminded me to start with the (= sign). It was unnerving, to say the least. Part of me was relieved to have a solution, but another part of me felt uneasy relying on AI for something so basic. It was a strangely unsettling moment, trust me.

Epiphanies come in all forms, manifesting in unexpected ways and at surprising moments. Such was the case for me, living in the rolling hills of Kentucky at the age of 73. The landscape, with its lush green pastures and gentle, undulating terrain, seemed to whisper secrets of life’s truths. It was amidst this serene beauty that I found myself reflecting on the years gone by, the choices made, and the wisdom gleaned from a lifetime of experiences, and I started to wonder what I was going to forget next.

Recently, my old goat and racehorse companion, yes literally a goat, had passed away at age 16, leaving me with a mix of nostalgia and sadness. Then my best buddy and friend, a black lab named Prince, also died, nearly shattering my heart into pieces. As if that wasn’t enough, after living with us for a while my youngest daughter Sabrina, her husband, their 3-year-old, and their newborn baby decided to move back to Minnesota. I found myself torn between happiness for their new chapter and a horrible ache of missing them. Then old friends and Minnesota neighbors came to visit, and Bill shared his newly published book about his battle with cancer and belief in God, filling me with admiration yet reminding me of life’s fragility. Shortly thereafter, our oldest granddaughter Kali visited with her husband and close friends, bringing joy but also a reminder of how much time had passed since we had seen them. Lastly, we were blessed with the opportunity to watch two of our youngest grandchildren when daughter Brianna and her husband attended a wedding in Nashville, leaving me grateful yet overwhelmed by the constant ebb and flow of emotions.

These seemingly unrelated events all unfolded over the span of two months, yet they intertwined in a way that deeply challenged my usual mindset. On one hand, I found myself pondering whether I would see some of these people again or how many more opportunities I’d have to express my love for them. It seemed like a foolish notion for someone like me, who typically shunned emotional displays, but it lingered persistently in my thoughts. On the other hand, my emotional shortcomings always had me grappling with the realization that there were countless things I had neglected to give or say. The struggle between my usual detachment and these newfound introspections was a constant tug at my conscience.

In my typical fashion as the overly analytical data specialist I had evolved into, I couldn’t help but dive into calculations. At the ripe age of 73, I found myself defying the odds, aware that only about a third of my high school companions were still journeying through life. Meanwhile, our move to the rolling hills of Kentucky six years back had introduced a new chapter as our daughter Tara and her family were settled nearby, but the majority of our relatives and longtime friends remained scattered across the familiar, snow-dusted landscapes of Wisconsin and Minnesota, where memories were etched into the frozen ground.

With a typical life expectancy of 78, we likely had only 5 to 7 years remaining, a thought both grounding and unsettling. We are reasonably healthy now, though my wife narrowly escaped a severe cancer diagnosis just 2 years ago, courageously recovering from ovarian and abdominal cancer. Yet, as I calculated, I realized we might only see some of my cherished relatives and friends perhaps 10 more times, if we are fortunate. This realization is both sobering and oddly motivating, especially as I notice some of my memories and logic seem to be fading.

So, I may get 10 more face-to-face visits with the people I cherish most, but what do I really have to share with them that matters? It’s both amusing and troubling to think about all the things I’ve wanted to say, while I also struggle to remember the lessons I’ve tried to impart. I am torn between the urgency to convey my thoughts and the fear of forgetting them entirely.

I pondered these thoughts as I wandered to the basement and pulled out files, pictures and books I have stored there. As I sat there, lost in contemplation, a sudden wave of determination washed over me. I refused to let the weight of uncertainty and impending forgetfulness crush my spirit. If time was indeed slipping through my fingers like grains of sand, then I would make every moment count. With renewed vigor, I opened a new document on my computer and began to type “Ten More Times”.
Life Lesson from a 72-Year-Old Retiree

February 25, 2025

I’m utterly exhausted from all this single-minded focus, driven by emotions rather than intellect! Honestly, don’t just nod along like a bobblehead or shake your head like a maraca merely because someone has a philosophy you deem the bee’s knees. On the flip side, don’t spiral into utter outrage every time someone you usually disagree with actually says something sensible. Remember, even the most genius and foolish individuals hit the mark on occasion, and, well, can be completely out of touch at other times!

Just this past week, I edited and finalized three chapters of this blog, tackled the tangled web of tax prep, chauffeured my wife to her doctor’s appointment like a retired Uber driver with style, and celebrated with a happy dance when we found out she’s still cancer-free after her epic battle with stage 4 ovarian cancer. As if that wasn’t enough, I was patching and painting the basement, and then turned into a barn-cleaning whirlwind after my horses decided to have a slumber party there during Kentucky’s freakishly recent cold snap.

With that said, and being a reasonably still coherent 72-year-old retiree, I can’t wrap my head around why it’s like pulling teeth for DOGE to get folks, whose salaries are paid with our tax dollars, to spend five measly minutes doing what I made senior execs do every week at staff meetings—simply list the five fabulous feats they accomplished last week, and the five things they plan on accomplishing this week!

Yep, that’s the kind of thing business operators ask business Vice Presidents, with literally millions of dollars of stock options, to do. Frankly, it’s just Business 101 in any “grown-up” office setting, and the out roar around DOGE asking government workers to do this simple thing spells out all we independent political free spirits need to know about how the governmental agencies and departments really operate.

You see, by publicly stating both short term goals and accomplishments people become accountable, not only to their bosses but their peers. They also can be measured comparably because weak goals, and even weaker accomplishments, don’t stack up in the rough and tumble business world.

The mere fact that people refuse to state their goals and accomplishments reveals the massive inefficiency associated with departments and agencies that operate at a 50% pace versus those that are proud of their typical 100% pace. Nothing more needs to be said!
Missing My Loyal Companion: A Tribute to Prince

February 12, 2025

Words fall short of capturing his true essence. If only the strength of love could have anchored him here, but now he’s gone. He was never merely an animal to me; he was a steadfast companion whose very presence became a lifeline I perhaps leaned on too heavily. Day and night, he stood loyally by my side, a constant shadow of comfort and companionship. Now, I find myself grappling with the profound realization of how much I depended on him—a realization that weighs heavily on my heart like a stone.

I reflect on how he always seemed to possess an uncanny ability to understand everything, bringing me a profound sense of peace and kindness, especially during my darkest moments when the world felt like it was closing in. Yet now, I grapple with the quiet times, those moments when his unwavering loyalty was my steadfast anchor in the storm.

Even though he’s no longer with me, his presence lingers in every corner of my life, a bittersweet reminder of the love and companionship I’ve lost. There’s no longer a need to stock up on his favorite treats or patiently wait as he searched for the perfect spot to do his business, but I deeply miss the comforting routines we shared. From the solitary ritual of early morning coffees to the warmth of nighttime cuddles, these moments shaped me in profound ways that I’m only beginning to comprehend.

From the moment I adopted him from the shelter, with his wide, hopeful eyes and wagging tail, to his later years sprinting joyfully around my grandson, his spirit was a vivid, radiant force that perhaps only old men like me can truly appreciate. His love was as deep and unfathomable as the ocean, a boundless well of affection that flowed freely without ever asking for anything in return. In quieter moments, when the house is still and the memories come flooding back, I often ponder if I took his generous nature for granted, not fully realizing the depth of his selfless devotion until it was too late.

Certainly, I understand that Prince might always be seen by many as just another of Papa’s animals, and perhaps to some, this ode might appear to be penned by an overly sentimental old fool or snowflake. But you know what… I simply don’t give a shit because after my wife, my children, my grandchildren and my great grandchildren, Prince was one of the most profound blessings in my long life filled with remarkable experiences.

Though he’s no longer here, a part of me struggles with the decision of whether to let go of the past or hold tight to these treasured memories. They envelop me like a comforting mist, whispering tales of moments we once shared, and I ponder whether they somehow anchor me to a sense of stability amidst the ever-shifting sands of my present life.

This is what life feels like now… a journey without my best friend by my side.
Ben Johnson: The NFL’s Rising Coaching Star

January 28, 2025

The topic at hand is the NFL coaching carousel, and in particular, the new Bear’s head coach Ben Johnson.

As always, I take the opinions of football pundits with a grain of salt. They are often proven wrong by their own predictions, which can be dizzying to keep up with. But why are they so often wrong? It’s because they lack an understanding of predictive analytics and allow irrelevant factors to influence their thinking. Instead of examining actual results, they inject emotional rhetoric into every aspect of their analysis. They give equal weight to a coach’s past playing experience as they do to their fictional notions of motivation. Even when they do consider “coaching” results, it is usually done in broad strokes rather than delving into specific data points. For instance, has any talking head looked into Aaron Glenn’s defensive coaching record for the Detroit Lions? Not likely. But I can tell you why he will fail miserably, just like all the other New York Jets coaches hired by the ignorant owner Woody Stephens

Let it be known, even a sightless bird will occasionally stumble upon a morsel of sustenance. In other words, despite the constant mediocrity and incompetence of owners like the Bear’s George McCaskey, and their habit of hiring joke coaches on the cheap, after fifteen long years without a single playoff appearance they may have finally stumbled upon the elusive prize they so desperately seek.

Ben Johnson is the blazing ray of hope for the blind and misguided McCaskey. With his impeccable coaching abilities, he has produced outstanding results that leave no room for doubt or criticism. Leading the Detroit Lions’ offense with an iron fist, they have dominated the charts as the top-ranked team in yards per game over the past three years. And their consistency is unmatched, never falling below second place in 2023 and 2024, and a still respectable fourth place in 2022. But don’t let these impressive stats distract you from the dismal performance of Detroit’s defense during those same three years – constantly hovering near the bottom of the rankings at 26th in 2021, 23rd in 2023, and dead last at 32nd in 2022. (Yep, Detroit’s defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s chances of success as a head coach in New York are non-existent).

To truly grasp the gravity of these interconnected outcomes, one must delve into the crucial factor of time of possession. Despite boasting a top 5 offense for three consecutive years, Detroit’s defense was barely on the field, yet their opponents still managed to rack up insane yards and scoring. In stark contrast, their abysmal defense struggled to wrestle the ball away from their adversaries, resulting in their own offense suffering from limited possessions. And yet, even with the odds stacked against them, this powerhouse Ben Johnson offensive team still reigned supreme in the league.

The burning question remains: was Ben Johnson truly a mastermind on the field, and just how disastrous was Aaron Glen’s performance? No one can deny their respective successes and failures, but what does that mean for their future as head coaches? My prediction is that Ben Johnson will rise to greatness once again, leading his team to victory with ease. As for Aaron Glenn, I have little faith in his ability to navigate the rough waters of New York as a head coach – joining the ranks of those before him who have failed miserably.

Out of all the coaches in the league, there are only two that I have complete faith in: Pete Carroll, who leads the Las Vegas team, and Mike Vrabel, head coach of the New England squad. These two men have proven themselves time and time again with their exceptional head coaching skills, and I believe they will thrive under more intelligent and capable owners like Robert Kraft and Mark Davis, Davis owns 47% of the Raiders. And let’s not forget about Tom Brady, who is heavily involved in the team’s decisions and even holds a 5% Raider ownership stake. With such a strong combination of leadership and ownership, these teams are destined for success.

The mediocre status quo in Dallas is expected, as Jerry Jones continues to hold the reins of this floundering team. To make matters worse, the team has hired Brian Schottenheimer as head coach. He is an internal yes man hire, and a lackluster offensive coach who helmed the 24th ranked offense for Dallas last year. On the other hand, there may be some hope for the Jaguars with their acquisition of Liam Coen, whose explosive offense led Tampa Bay to a third place ranking in the league last year. Yet, his true potential as a head coach remains uncertain without sufficient data to back it up.

So, Ben Johnson towers above the rest as the clear choice for the best hire. He is followed closely by Pete Carrol, Mike Vrabel, and Liam Coen, leaving the poorly run franchises in New York and Dallas to wallow in their delusions of playoff glory.
Insights on Championship Bets: NFL Trends and Predictions

January 27, 2025

The dust has settled, and if you followed my advice on championship bets, you’re probably swimming in cash right now. The Eagles’ dominant display on the field was no surprise to those who have been following this blog, but for the hapless Commanders, it was a rude awakening. They were ill-prepared for the relentless attacks of the Eagles’ formidable defense, whose ferocity could only be matched by their outstanding strategy.

As for Detroit previously, their feeble attempt at defense was no match for the Commanders’ unrelenting offense. Despite ranking 2nd in time of possession, Detroit’s defense quickly crumbled under the weight of their opponent’s onslaught. In contrast yesterday, the Vic Fangio-led Eagles defense stood tall and impenetrable, cementing their place as the undisputed top defense in the league. Even though their offense only ranked 10th in time of possession, their defense was far and away the best in yards allowed. Now that’s what I call dominance.

It was hilarious as bandwagon folks jumped on with the Commanders. You’ve just got to love these last data point gamblers who constantly help those who rely on systemic evidence get better odds, week after week.

In the midst of all the NFL chaos, the incomparable coach Andy Reid and his elite team execute yet another one score possession victory. But despite their consistent dominance, people still fail to comprehend the true genius behind the Chiefs’ success, so here’s a question that may help you. How did they manage to secure 21-year-old powerhouse Xavier Worthy with the “28th pick” in last year’s draft? And not just any average player – a blazing fast prodigy who shattered records with a jaw-dropping 4.21 at the NFL combine. It’s clear that this organization operates on a level above the rest, and until you can grasp that concept, you’ll never truly understand their greatness.

Lastly, I have to talk about NFL conspiracy nuts. The NFL conspiracy theorists are nothing but foolish, self-absorbed individuals who refuse to accept reality. They cling onto their delusions and concoct wild conspiracies to soothe their fragile egos, refusing to acknowledge the truth. Do they honestly believe that a secret gathering of hundreds of players, coaches, referees, AI video experts, and billionaire owners occurs in some underground cave every year to plan out a script for the entire NFL season? It’s absurd. But then again, in this idiotic world where 2 out of 10 people think it’s quite possible that the Earth is flat, anything is possible.

“Whenever insufficient data exists to support what people think is true, or they are too light minded to comprehend how things actually work, they often invent conspiracies to keep their foolish egos in tact.”

My final advice on the Super Bowl, as of today, the Eagles are 2 point underdogs, and I’d take the Eagles who I think will win by 4.
TikTok: The Illusion of Importance

January 19, 2025

The thought of losing Tik Tok “does not” send a shiver down my spine, knowing that the nonsensical users who may have to adapt to different platforms will brand me as an ignorant fool. You see, I am not blind to the impact of technology and its constant evolution. I know that TikTok stands in a league of its own, with its massive influence on today’s society, capturing the attention and obsession of millions, particularly the younger generations. Its highly advanced algorithm has the power to thrust content into the limelight in mere seconds, making it a key player in the realms of entertainment, news consumption, marketing, and even setting cultural trends. Its significance cannot be denied, but you see the question of importance is another factor.

At 72 years old, with a lifetime of experience and a deep understanding of technology, I am surrounded by the chaos of the Tik Tok controversy. As a former leader in large-scale IT organizations, I am well-versed in staying ahead of the ever-evolving technology curve. And even at my age, I still engage with thousands of young people every day through video games and online communication. Yet amidst all this knowledge and experience, I cannot help but see the entire situation as nothing more than a steaming pile of bullshit. Sure, there may be over 2 million users and various commercial and security concerns at play, but I can also see past the surface level hoopla to discern what truly matters. At my age, I have learned to distinguish between surface-level importance and the true significance of a situation.

The flashy facade of Tik Tok’s supposed importance conceals a hidden truth: its influence is shallow and meaningless. Despite this, people are foolishly swayed by the information presented on this platform. But can’t we do something more meaningful with this information to truly create value in our society? Must we be consumed by the constant stream of content and debates over promoting “art” or fading into obscurity? It’s time to break free from the grasp of Tik Tok, search for real meaning, and demand substance in our media.

The world spins wildly out of control, mirroring the chaotic downfall of the once-great Roman Empire. Emotions reign supreme, and those who can make shallow connections the fastest are deemed superior. But in this twisted reality, intelligence is mistaken for simplistic thinking and logic is overshadowed by base emotions. It’s a dystopian nightmare straight out of the cult classic film Idiocracy, and there seems to be no escape from its clutches.

Through sheer determination and unwavering belief, a miracle may come to pass. A twist of fate could finally rid society of the rampant stupidity that infects every corner. The mere thought of this brings a sense of euphoria and hope to those who long for a brighter, more intelligent future. Yet, for now, we must cling to that hope with all our might and battle against the mind-numbing idiocy that threatens to engulf us in its suffocating grip.

In the meantime, the fate of Tik Tok loomed over us like a dark cloud, ranking right up there with wildfire deaths and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. The app’s future hung in the balance, its impact on society debated and scrutinized. Would it be hailed as a revolution or condemned as a menace? Only time would tell.

Like I said, what a bunch of bullshit!
Fortune Cookie Mornings

November 7, 2024

Twenty years ago I left the rat race of the corporate world behind, I found myself able to indulge in luxuries that were once out of reach during my youth. Cars, family trips, homes and racehorses took up much of my time but before I retired I also had the simple luxury of having the time to personally drive my kids to school many mornings on the way to work.

As we cruised down the road in the early hours, a sense of peace and contentment often filled the car. My children, as typical teenagers do, mostly kept to themselves and avoided interactions with me, and today I wonder if they even remember the rides to school. During those rides, every now and then, I would imagine they would open up and share their thoughts, though I’m sure it was more my desire to talk than theirs. They called those mornings “fortune cookie mornings”.

The sunlight streamed through the windows often, casting a warm glow over our conversation. The familiar sights of our neighborhood passed by in a blur as we chatted about many things. These moments were precious to me, as I savored each one knowing that soon enough my children would be grown and gone. But for now, I cherished these quiet, intimate moments with my kids on our daily commute.

On a particularly chaotic morning, I made the foolish decision to try and explain the complexities of understanding variation in the confined space of a car. Of course the kids rolled their eyes, and frankly they still do that today. Nevertheless, I stumbled over my words, attempting to convey the intricacies of data science and practical variation to my children, remembering how I often failed to do this effectively with high IQ executives in my former business world roles. But I pressed on, determined to impart some level of understanding to my offspring.

In a moment of madness, I promised them that if they could grasp these concepts, they would have an advantage over their peers – a rare gift in a drama and emotion driven world where so few truly understand either the logical importance of things or better yet, how to solve problems by determining root causes. After fumbling through the conversation for what felt like an eternity, I ended it with what an old idiot like me would think was a crisp synopsis of what I was trying to impart.

“In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.”

As my youngest daughter looked as confused as the two older children she innocently questioned why she couldn’t have two eyes open and be a better king. I knew my point was lost, and even today only a few of my students have tried to understand the advantages I had throughout life by being able to remove emotion and drama from my business activities, while seeing, solving and predicting more effectively than my competitors utilizing statistical science.

As funny as it seems, that morning my daughter’s comment made me feel conflicted. On one hand, her question seemed silly and reflective of our family’s tendency towards sarcasm and the humor that comes from it. But as I drove across town for an important meeting, her words lingered in my mind. Why settle for just an advantage when true excellence is within reach? Why, as the lion chases us, is my goal to simply outrun the guy next to me? Suddenly, what was once a playful remark from my child had turned into a deep internal debate about ambitions and goals.

That day, I stormed into our boardroom meeting and demanded a dialogue with the executives in my operation. They had presented a good plan to build an internet portal that would allow customers and healthcare providers access data crucial to them providing customer service and eliminate literally millions of phone calls. Prior efforts had failed miserably but after a restructure, our team had inherited a massive but dysfunctional process, neglected by both expensive consultants and internal operations for far too long.

That day I refused to settle for mediocrity. The plan my team proposed was decent, but I knew we were capable of more. So instead of accepting incremental improvement, I challenged them to think bigger. Together, we spent the entire day devising an “ideal” system that would revolutionize functional data exchanges and far exceed all known portals in history.

It may have seemed like just another silly dad Fortune Cookie Morning to my kids, but little did they know that their innocent musings about being stupid enough to simply want to be better than others, when “ideals” were within reach, helped spark a multi-million dollar benefit for our shareholders.

Today I marvel as foolishness surrounds us as people act on opinions, lies, conspiracy theories, and an immense amount of drama laden stories, when the truth is so easily discoverable through statistical science. We do not need both eyes to dominate – just one strategic advantage. While perfection may be impossible, when you understand variation greatness can be achieved.
Exploring the Hidden World of Understanding Variation

November 7, 2024

There is a world beyond the grasp of many, a hidden realm that remains elusive to most. A secret realm, a parallel universe of infinite knowledge that remains shrouded in mystery, forever out of reach for 95% of the population. A world filled with hidden wonders and unimaginable truths, forever elusive and unattainable to all but a select few. A place where ancient secrets and forbidden knowledge lie waiting, tantalizingly out of reach for the masses who will never know its existence.

For those who are able to comprehend it, the knowledge comes with great risks and gambles every day. They tirelessly strive to unravel the complex theories that surround their actions, constantly adapting and evolving in order to stay ahead.

Close your eyes and take a moment to immerse yourself in this hidden world. As you open your eyes, let them roam around and take in the surroundings. What theories can be associated with the form and function of the first five things that caught your eye?

From the intricately carved frame encircling a picture on the wall, to the sleek and curved shape of the cola bottle sitting on the table, to the sturdy metal stapler resting on your desk. Everything you see see has theory associated with it! Some people see unique and distinct worlds all around them. But while some merely make casual observations, others delve deeper and question why things are the way they are. These individuals often possess qualities of success, complexity, critical thinking, and may be seen as difficult to deal with. It’s not that their minds contain more gray matter than others; they have just been conditioned to see beyond surface appearances and inquire about what lies beneath.

The inverted pyramid below represents the population. It’s an eye-opening glimpse into the hidden world that exists all around us. As you study it, try to honestly assess where you and those around you might fit within this structure. It’s a sobering exercise, but one that may reveal uncomfortable truths about our society.

How often do you search for data to discover truth? Do you know how to turn data into information? Do you have complete confidence that you understand truth, and take action?

My unwavering belief is that the first two layers of this pyramid encapsulate a staggering 95% of the population. And while I cannot claim to know this with absolute certainty, my assessment is based on meticulously gathered data from surveys and social media, as well as the number of individuals pursuing education in the field of data science in North America. Some may accuse me of being overly confident or egotistical, but I stand by my estimation that 95% fall into these categories.

This is an uncomfortable truth to face, and I’m sure most people will vehemently deny belonging to such a statistic. But let’s be honest, how many of us are truly willing to admit that we passively observe life without ever questioning why? No one wants to believe they form opinions without solid evidence, right? Of course not. So for those who reject the notion of being part of this top tier, let’s just say I’m referring to the remaining 95 out of 100 blindly following along like mindless lemmings.

The “Cosmic Event” and “Unfounded Opinion” individuals may stumble upon truth and knowledge from time to time, but their true focus is not on understanding or discovery. They refuse to delve deeper into the mysteries of life, content with simply walking through it without questioning its purpose or reason. Their minds are clouded with superficial thoughts and they are oblivious to the world beyond their own narrow-minded beliefs.

But the next five layers of the upside pyramid house a completely different breed of people. They may be human, but their world is one that many cannot even fathom. Their existence is dedicated to constant search, discovery, and unyielding thirst for knowledge and wisdom. These individuals expand their horizons and learn new things every single day.

It’s not that the 5% are inherently smarter, happier, or better than the 95%. They simply operate in an entirely different realm, with both advantages and disadvantages. The downsides are plentiful – what doesn’t even register for the 95% can drive the 5% to madness. Their minds never rest as they constantly question everything around them. But at the same time, they enjoy untold benefits that the majority of society will never comprehend. This entire blog delves into these advantages, shedding light on the extraordinary world of the few who dare to seek true understanding and knowledge in a sea of ignorance.

The vast majority, around 95%, do not question theory day after day, month after month. They have limited opportunities to truly learn, and I say this without using the word “memorize.” The remaining 5% who yearn for knowledge often become frustrated as they are forced to spend their time memorizing useless facts while subpar teaching institutions hand out A’s for mere rote learning.

Consider Steve Jobs, a visionary genius who revolutionized technology usage. Yet, he held a less-than-stellar GPA of 2.65. Can this be used as evidence to discredit his brilliance? Similarly, take Einstein, whose exceptional grades in Physics and Math solidify his position as a genius in those fields. However, his mediocre marks in Language and History may lead some to question his overall intelligence. But can we truly measure one’s brilliance based on grades alone?

A minuscule 5% actually despise following traditional methods simply because “that’s how it’s always been done.” As you come into contact with those lower on the pyramid, you’re likely to encounter individuals who reject authority with a burning passion for truth, action, and victory. They couldn’t care less about conforming or blending in. Their natural tendency towards skepticism and rebellious behavior is often seen as a direct attack on political power, when all they truly desire is knowledge and growth.

The Inverted Pyramid symbolizes a roadmap for honing one’s skills. Once each layer is understood as a step in personal development rather than an innate talent, it can be learned and applied to any pursuit. Take risk-taking, for example – even if it’s uncomfortable, building this skill can foster confidence. The extent of improvement relies on an individual’s thirst for knowledge and ability to put it into practice in activities based on skill.

The hidden world that opens up once someone delves into the realm of understanding variation is exhilarating. But first, we must humbly acknowledge that there are endless things we do not yet comprehend.
The Hidden Costs of Sports Betting: Unraveling the Vig

October 2, 2024

In previous blog articles, I have emphasized that everyone, in one way or another, is a gambler. Whether they realize it or not, life is full of risks and chances. It is crucial for individuals to grasp the rules of the game they are playing, as recent messages from readers have reminded me.

One significant question that has yet to be addressed on this blog is: How do Sportsbooks truly operate? As an avid gambler myself, I understand the mechanics behind these establishments, but it became painfully clear that many people who place bets through sportsbooks have little to no understanding of how the system truly functions. It is a complex and intricate process that requires knowledge and experience to fully comprehend.

Sportsbooks generate their profits through a clever system called the vig (short for vigorish). This term can also be known as “juice” or “the hold” or “the rake”. Essentially, the vig is a commission or charge that a sportsbook adds onto every bet available on their platform. It is seamlessly incorporated into the odds, so customers may not even realize they are paying it.

In order to balance out the bets placed on both sides of an event, sportsbooks utilize the vig to guarantee their own profit (even after paying out winners). This ensures that no matter which outcome prevails, the sportsbook will still come out ahead. The vig acts as a safeguard for the bookmaker, allowing them to continue offering exciting and fair betting opportunities while still maintaining their business.

Having a deep comprehension of variation and probabilities is imperative for individuals, but it is equally vital that they know how to apply this knowledge – in other words, how to gamble. Without understanding the true rules of the game, it is impossible to truly know how to gamble. This requires a keen understanding of not only the numbers and odds, but also the strategies and tactics involved.

Like a skilled chess player, one must be able to anticipate their opponent’s moves and calculate potential outcomes in order to make informed decisions. In the world of gambling, this means knowing when to take risks and when to play it safe. It is like a delicate dance between chance and strategy, where every move could lead to either victory or defeat.

Some followers shared their recent struggles with NFL parlay bets, despite following probability advice given. A quick assessment revealed that they were placing wagers on too many teams in each parlay, as suspected. The truth is, sportsbooks don’t have a preference for which teams you bet on; their ultimate goal is to get you to bet as much as possible. This is why they constantly adjust spreads and odds. Why? Because they profit off of every single bet placed, a fact that some fail to realize.

In the end, the sportsbooks’ indifference towards specific teams makes sense when considering the larger picture. They collect a portion of each bet made, so it doesn’t matter who wins or loses – they always come out on top.

As the anticipation builds for the London NFL game this weekend between the Jets and the Vikings, bettors are strategizing their plays based on current lines. The Jets can be backed with +2.5 points at +102 odds while the Vikings have a -2.5 spread at -122. This means that a successful bet on the Jets is for them to lose by 2 points or less, and this would yield a profit of $102 from a $100 wager, returning a total of $202. On the other hand, betting on the Vikings to win by 3 points or more creates a wagering win and requires a higher stake of $122 but would result in a profit of $100, returning $222.

Some may choose to hedge their bets by placing money on both teams, thinking that it will even out in the end. However, what they may not realize is that this is exactly what the sportsbooks want to happen. By setting and changing odds and lines, they ensure that almost the same amount of money is bet on each side of the ledger. No matter which team wins, they still come out with a profit.

In this scenario, if all bettors evenly split their wagers between both teams, the total amount bet would be $222 and the total winnings would only be $202. Therefore, the sportsbook’s profit margin would be the difference of $20, or 9.0% of the money bet. It’s important to remember that when it comes to sports betting, the house always has an advantage.

In order to place a bet on the outcome of this game, you have two options: the point spread or the moneyline. A moneyline bet is simply choosing one team to win, regardless of the established point spread. In this case, the Jets are listed at +130 and the Vikings at -155. This means that a $100 bet on the Jets would result in a $130 profit, while a $155 bet on the Vikings would yield a $100 profit.

Going back to our previous scenario of betting on both teams, you would need to wager $255 in total to potentially win $230. The $25 difference represents the sportsbook’s profit margin, which is calculated when bets are evenly placed on both teams, amounting to 9.8% of the total wagers placed. So whether you choose to bet on the point spread or the moneyline, the sportsbooks take in between 9 and 10% profit.

Take a moment to ponder the information I have just shared. As time passes, the sportsbooks accrue a 9 to 10% profit margin on all single game bets. So, even if I am only correct half of the time, I am destined to lose money, right? In reality, in order to beat the sportsbook’s vigorish (vig), I must be accurate at least 55% of the time to overcome the vig Knowing this, why would I ever place a bet on a team with a mere 54% chance of winning? The answer is simple – I wouldn’t, and never have.

As I have mentioned before, there is always room for error in predictive algorithms when it comes to sports like NFL football. “Any Given Sunday” is more than just a catchy phrase – it’s a fact that must be accounted for in betting. Thus, I choose to only bet on the moneyline when my chances of winning are at least 67%, which translates to a 4 point spread between my prediction and the lines established by the sportsbooks. This allows me some leeway and does not require perfection to overcome the vig.

The concept of parlays adds a layer of complexity to sports betting, as it involves wagering on multiple outcomes instead of a single win or loss. If you comprehend the earlier profit margin rules used by sportsbooks to balance out the amount of money bet on each side, then you can apply that knowledge to calculate breakeven payoff odds for parlays.

A single bet on a 1 team with a 50/50 chance of winning should result in a payoff at 1 to 1, meaning the amount won is equal to the amount bet.

For a 2 team parlay where both teams must win, the payoff should be at 3 to 1. This is calculated by multiplying the individual probabilities of each team winning (0.5*0.5=.25) and dividing that by the probability of losing (0.75 or 75%) divided by the probability of winning (.25 or 25%), which equals 3.

In a 3 team parlay where all 3 teams must win with a 50/50 chance, the payoff should be at 7 to 1. This is calculated by multiplying the individual probabilities of each team winning (0.5*0.5*0.5 = .125) and dividing that by the probability of losing (0.875 or 87.5%) divided by the probability of winning (.125 or 12.5%), which equals 7.

Using this same scenario, we can determine the proper odds for different parlays: for a 4 team parlay, the odds are 15 to 1; for a 5 team parlay, the odds are 31 to 1; for a 6 team parlay, the odds are 63 to 1; for a 7 team parlay, the odds are 127 to 1; and for an 8 team parlay, the odds are 254 to 1, and so on.

In real world situations these odds are not the payoff odds. For example, using all home teams as an example for the first eight games in the upcoming weekend, an actual sportsbook payout would be: for a 2 team parlay 2.5 to 1; for a 3 team parlay, it would be 5.93 to 1; for a 4 team parlay, it would be 11.61 to 1; for a 5 team parlay, it would be 23.07 to 1; for a 6 team parlay, it would be 46.01 to 1; for a 7 team parlay, it would be 88.74 to 1; and for an 8 team parlay, it would be 171.85 to 1.

By comparing the mathematical fair odds to the actual sportsbook payoffs, the single team 9 to 10% sportsbook vig or profit margin skyrockets to 16.7% for 2 teams, 15.3% for 3 teams, 22.6% for 4 teams, 25.6% for 5 teams, 27% for 6 teams, 30.1% for 7 teams and a whopping 32.3% for 8 teams.

Of course, the allure of winning over $400 with just a $5 bet on a 7 team parlay may be tempting, but it’s ultimately a trap set by the sportsbooks who rake in a hefty 30% profit margin on such bets.

As for my own strategic targets and profit margins, I only place wagers when I am confident with at least a 67% chance of winning and a minimum of a 4 point advantage “over the established points spreads”, never extending beyond a 3 team parlay. This way, I can minimize risk and maximize potential wins while avoiding the traps set by the sportsbooks.

I hope this helps those who have expressed confusion as to why they may be pretty good at picking winners, but struggle with wagering successfully. It’s all about finding wagering overlays and wagering smartly.
Understanding the 20% Track Take in Horse Racing

October 1, 2024

Horse racing is a game of numbers, where every dollar bet at the racetrack only returns about 80 cents to winning bettors. This $20 difference, known as the track take, has contributed to the decline in consumer interest over the years. In comparison to other forms of gambling, a 20% take is considered too high. However, this money goes towards covering expenses, purses for winning horses, taxes, profits, and other related costs.

The constantly changing payoff odds are designed to ensure that only 80% of the total amount bet is returned to the winning bettors. Therefore, on average, a bettor can expect to receive back 80% of what they risk. This is not an opinion but a mathematical fact.

So how does one actually win at horse racing? The key is to develop a predictive theory that yields higher returns than the 80% average. For example, if someone wanted to make just a 1% profit on their bets (meaning collecting $101 for every $100 bet), their predictive model would need to be 26.3% better than the average race gambler’s predictions. This translates to a calculation of 101/80 = 1.263, or being 26.3% more accurate than the average bettor. It all comes down to having a solid and effective strategy in place that outperforms the rest.

As a young teenager, I was already calculating and translating my thoughts into betting theories and strategies. I knew that the average bettor hit on about 30% winners, so in order to see success, I needed to hit on at least 38% winners – a staggering 26.3% higher than the norm. But as I delved deeper into the world of betting and horse racing, I quickly realized that this simplistic approach was not enough. The real question was how to make money, not just win more bets.

I soon learned that it wasn’t about hitting a certain number of winners per week, but rather about growing my bankroll and increasing my returns. It didn’t matter if I had 15 or 5 winners a week at the Chicago tracks – what mattered was whether my bankroll was growing. And to do that, I had to focus on odds and finding what is now known as “overlays” – horses with odds that offered greater potential for profit.

But there was another factor at play here: the size of my bankroll. As a teenager working at Kmart in Elgin, Illinois, I realized that being even 26.3% better than the average gambler meant nothing if my bankroll was too small to handle normal variations and fluctuations in results. To truly see success in horse racing, I needed either a significantly better predictive system or a much bigger bankroll.

I also quickly saw the flaws in betting on every single race. Not all races were created equal – some had better odds and therefore presented better opportunities for profit. So why waste my time and money on races with lower odds and smaller potential returns?

Despite my knowledge of racing form and ability to out-gamble even the most seasoned veterans, it all came down to one simple fact: in the land of losers, I may have been a king among them, but without a larger bankroll or a more advanced predictive system, I was just another one-eyed man in a world of the blind.

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