Old Man Pondering

Mastering Horse Racing Bets: Secrets to Success

May 28, 2025

Ah, we’ve galloped headlong into the Triple Crown Season, folks! Sovereignty strutted his stuff and nabbed the Derby, while Journalism, bless his clumsy hooves, managed to overcome an obstacle course worthy of a circus act to snag the Preakness. I had Journalism pegged as the top dog—er, horse—in both races, and despite his penchant for dramatic flair, I still reckon he’s the superstar of the three-year-old scene.

When I was seven, I first crouched at the edge of a sunbaked track, the sweet smell of hay and horses thick in the air, a worn racing form in my small hands. Even then, I absorbed every line of data—post positions, past performances, fractional times—and within months, I was showing the neighborhood how to read a form like a map to hidden treasure. Decades of spilled coffee, late-night scribbling, and trial-and-error taught me to refine those raw observations into a calibrated system of predictive probability. The victories piled up, my bankroll grew, and yet I still wish I’d unlocked some of the racetrack’s deeper secrets before my hair began its exodus in the eighties.

Over the years, I’ve lost count of eager faces pressing me for the secret to picking winners. Every time, I lean in and ask: “Do you really want to know?” That question is my litmus test. After fifty years of peeling back layers of variation theory, data science and betting science, there are no quick formulas—only complex models, real-time adjustments, and the discipline to stick to them. Even with my predictive algorithms automated into sleek software, turning a profit at the windows demands serious time, constant vigilance, and the willingness to adjust on the fly. It’s maddening to hear would-be gamblers demand a ten-minute shortcut to guaranteed winners.

Most of what I eventually discovered about racing wasn’t in the dusty tomes on common theory; it lay in advanced statistical science—the same predictive-analysis tools I’d honed running corporations. There’s no magic fairy dust for understanding variation or Bayesian probability. Learning to see the racetrack through that lens is like learning a new language: it takes years of study and practice.

When people finally admit they “really” want to know, I give them fifteen minutes—and then watch their eyes glaze over when I shift the conversation from naming horses to constructing a profitable betting portfolio. They’re stunned when I tell them they’re asking the wrong question. They think they want to pick winners; what they truly crave is money in their pocket. Picking winners and making money on the track are not the same thing. To come out ahead, you must identify value bets—horses whose true chances of victory exceed the odds being offered.

Probability theory rules every furlong of the racetrack. Anyone who masters predictive probability and distinguishes common-cause variation from truly exceptional performances becomes a dangerous adversary to the house and to casual bettors alike. Savvy gamblers often back against the chalk favorite because when the tote board’s payoff odds are lower than the horse’s actual win probability, the ticket is a guaranteed loser over time.

I’ll unravel these concepts over time, chapter by chapter. But I know most people don’t really want to learn the rigorous science of profitable wagering—just as most entrepreneurs don’t want the hard work of running a healthy business. They seek a silver bullet or a cosmic shortcut to glory. I hate to break it to them: that’s a mirage. The real path to winning at the track is a long haul—no quick fixes, no pixie dust, just disciplined study and disciplined betting.
The Rollercoaster of Life: Risk, Reward, and Lessons for the Young …. Part Three

May 20, 2025

I just can’t wrap my head around why folks dodge taking risks even when the odds are practically winking at them. Picture this: If they think a team has a 60% chance to win, they’re also aware of that pesky 40% chance of losing. Yet, it’s like the idea of losing throws them into a panic! Oddly enough, these same people have no problem shelling out nearly $7 every day for a stupid Giant Sized, Iced, Sugar-Free, Vanilla Latte with Soy Milk. That’s right, a frothy, subtly sweet drink that smells divine but costs almost $2,500 a year, and let’s face it, doesn’t exactly scream long-term benefits.

For newbies, losing 40 times out of 100 feels like staring into a never-ending pit of doom, ready to swallow them whole. Even the pros in probability, like all those actuaries I’ve met, get the heebie-jeebies at the thought of taking big personal risks. They cling to their risk aversion like it’s a life preserver, petrified of going under. In their mad dash for safety, they hunt for sure bets, not realizing that real victory means strapping on your brave boots and diving into the fray. That’s why you often see genius-level brains just bobbing along, never quite snagging the riches or comfort dangling right in front of them. Fear of losing gobbles them up, shackling their potential and leaving them stuck in the same old rut.

I have a bunch of pals who are brainiacs extraordinaire and tiptoe around risks like they’re avoiding banana peels on a freshly waxed floor. Sure, they’re crushing it in life, be it in their shiny careers or collecting medals in obscure achievements, but when it comes to stuffing their piggy banks, they’re not exactly breaking the bank. They often cast bemused and mildly horrified glances my way, especially when I hang out with my fellow dice-rolling, racetrack cronies, as we passionately debate our latest bets and the bewildering odds that look like they were designed by a mathematician on a caffeine high. To them, gamblers are just wild-eyed thrill-seekers who somehow find joy in watching cash do a disappearing act. What they don’t get is that the thrill of winning—oh, sweet victory!—most of the time beats the pants off the occasional wallet-draining fiasco. Out of every 100 bets, we might take a nosedive 40 times, sometimes getting hit with a brutal streak of 6 or 7 consecutive losses, but the glee of those 60 wins makes it all worthwhile. These bubble-wrap enthusiasts can’t wrap their heads around the wild ride and adrenaline rush of a win, nor do they realize they’re actually risk-takers themselves every time they jaywalk across the street or drink that pot of coffee every morning!

The stakes in gambling can be higher than a cat on a hot tin roof! It’s not just about tossing a couple of coins like you’re feeding a hungry parking meter. Nope, the savvy gambler is practically a wizard, conjuring up risk and probability calculations with the flick of a wrist. Are you really going to risk little Timmy’s college fund, your beloved shag carpet, or the stability of your bank account for a quick thrill that lasts about as long as a sneeze? The answer should be as firm as your grandma’s fruitcake: NO! You see, variation is the spice of gambling life, and those who get this ride on the wild rollercoaster of risk and reward, not just on the next spin of the wheel, understand they will deploy their solid risk/reward algorithm to every wild ride down the line!

Understanding and respecting your limits is essential in the high-stakes world of gambling. It’s similar to carefully considering your budget before deciding to buy a luxury car, its elegant lines and shiny exterior inviting you with promises of prestige and performance. For the experienced, well-off gambler, placing a $5,000 bet on a football game or buying a $50,000 racehorse might feel like a sensible choice, amounts that don’t significantly impact their finances. However, for an underpaid and dedicated teacher with limited income, even a $100 bet might be a significant risk. True gamblers not only evaluate the odds of winning—they also thoughtfully assess the chances of losing, possibly facing a series of losses, and decide how much they’re comfortable risking from their funds. In this environment, it’s the realm of the bold and strategic thinkers, where every choice is a thoughtful dance with destiny.

The concept of taking a risk transcends gambling and can be applied to any situation. How much is one willing to invest in terms of time and money when it comes to worshiping and paying your tithe to your church—10% of your income, which is honestly a staggering sum for many? Or pursuing a master’s degree, a daunting commitment of years and dollars? What about vying for a coveted promotion, selecting the right investment fund for your 401k, purchasing and renovating a fixer-upper as your primary residence, with its peeling paint and potential hidden beneath layers of neglect? Trying out a new dining spot, spending three hours immersed in a cinematic experience, or buying a new car, each scenario presents its own set of potential gains and losses. These decisions all demand some degree of consideration and weighing of options. You see, each choice is a gamble in some form, and a chapter in the story of risk and reward.

Think about taking another job, with a new employer over 1,000 miles away. The true essence of a gamble like that might hit you like a freight train, the weight of such a decision threatening to crush you as you scramble to calculate the perilous risks involved. Your mind races at a feverish pace, desperately trying to align these daunting risks with the razor-thin chance of success. But for seasoned gamblers, this is just another day in the pressure cooker – making both high and low stakes calculations with ruthless efficiency, hundreds of times over, without a hint of hesitation.

To truly flourish as a gambler, it requires far more than just sheer nerve and bravado. It involves a meticulous process, almost like a complex algorithm, that must be diligently adhered to. This process, although seemingly instantaneous to the outside observer, as gamblers often appear to possess an almost instinctual knack, is always present. Trust me, beneath the surface lies a careful sequence of decisions, swiftly executed, guiding every move in the high-stakes world of gambling.

Step 1: Dive headfirst into an unwavering quest for knowledge, sifting through every piece of information you can find. This isn’t about blindly accepting the absurd viewpoints or the sensationalized nonsense often peddled by the media to captivate the uninformed masses and provoke an emotional reaction. Instead, it’s about uncovering the original sources of data, meticulously examining credible studies, and delving into accurate, publicly accessible information. Picture yourself navigating a vast sea of facts, discerning the valuable gems of truth from the surrounding noise, ensuring your understanding is grounded in authenticity and precision.

Step 2: Each fragment of information must be meticulously dissected with the precision and care of a skilled surgeon, each detail thoroughly scrutinized, normalized, and analyzed to uncover deeper insights. For instance, in Part 1 of this series, I highlighted that horse racing wagering revenue in the US had decreased by 21% since the year 2000. At first glance, this fact might pique interest but lacks depth. I then delved into the precise effects of inflation since 2000 and discovered that the wagering revenue had actually plummeted by nearly 57%. This revelation is nothing short of astonishing, as it means that horse racing is not even half of what it was 25 years ago, painting a vivid picture of its dramatic decline over the decades.

Step 3: You must meticulously calculate the probability of every conceivable outcome, weighing each possibility with diligent precision. Recently, I placed a bet on Journalism to win the Preakness. After thoroughly analyzing every known aspect of his past performances—his speed, endurance, jockey partnership, and track conditions—I concluded that he had a near 65% chance of clinching victory in that race.

Step 4: It’s crucial to meticulously calculate how your predicted probabilities stack up against potential gains or losses, ensuring that every decision is rooted in thorough analysis. In the Preakness Stakes, Journalism entered the race at even money odds (1-1), indicating that the public bettors assessed his chances of winning at a straightforward 50%. However, my own calculations suggested a 65% probability of victory for Journalism, resulting in a favorable 30% margin when compared to the bookmaker’s odds (65% predicted probability divided by the 50% payoff probability). Driven by this statistical edge, I placed my bet on Journalism. Although my emotions whispered that there was still a 35% chance of him losing, and he indeed came perilously close to doing so, my decision was anchored in the cold, hard realm of mathematics—no emotions, just numbers.

Step 5: Even after mastering the prior four steps, a fifth, more perilous step awaits, lurking like a shadowy figure in the distance, casting an enigmatic silhouette against the backdrop of your ambitions. Taking that fifth step feels like diving headfirst into the vast, uncharted waters of the unknown, where the safety net of certainty is but a distant memory, and your precious cash is tossed into the swirling, tumultuous abyss of risk and chance. Yet, it’s not merely about observing your wallet perform daring acrobatics; it’s about grasping how each small leap is an integral part of the grand, intricate circus that is your life or finances. It becomes a relentless tug-of-war between your sensible, logical brain and your untamed, adventurous heart, often giving the sensation that the universe is engaged in a playful, cheeky game of hide and seek with your luck, no matter how meticulously you’ve pored over countless spreadsheets. Because, let’s be honest, no matter how many times you double-check your meticulously crafted plan, a gamble remains a gamble, and surprises are the universe’s favorite, mischievous party trick.

So, are you ready to embrace the exhilarating thrill and perhaps even chuckle at the delightful chaos it brings? Yep, step 5 is all about having the intelligence to take a risk!
The Rollercoaster of Life: Risk, Reward, and Lessons for the Young …. Part Two “Probability and Risk”

May 19, 2025

In part one, I concluded by proposing that a key to success lies in mastering the harsh game of probability and taking risks. Essentially, this means gambling. This idea is fundamental and worth deep reflection. For instance, Webster’s dictionary defines risk-taking as: Engaging in an action that involves danger or risk to accomplish a goal. Additionally, gambling is defined as: The activity of placing bets or risking money or other stakes in a game or wager.

Observe the contrasting and somewhat negative connotations of both definitions. Risk-taking implies the presence of danger yet remains silent on the prospect of reward. Gambling revolves around the ominous concept of betting, again with no mention of potential gains. Here’s the unvarnished truth: countless times each day, you engage in risk-taking and betting, for life itself is akin to a vast, unpredictable game! The real question you must ponder is whether you are gambling with wisdom and insight or merely drifting through life in a naïve and uninformed manner, hoping that your God, fate or chance will determine your destiny.

Do you ever really ponder probabilities? Take marriage, for instance. Choosing whether to marry and whom to marry is one of the most significant decisions you’ll ever face. What criteria did you, or will you, use? Did you follow your parents’ pattern of staying in a miserable and unhealthy marriage for years, or did you witness multiple divorces within your family or among relatives? Did you evaluate personalities and compatibility? Moreover, did you take into account the chances of success? After all, 40 to 50% of first marriages end in divorce, while 60-67% of second marriages face the same fate. Interestingly, Catholics have the lowest divorce rates at 34%, with those attending mass weekly divorcing at a 24% rate, while those who don’t attend mass come close to the general population average with a 38% rate.

Oh, wow! Just look at how poorly we handle one of the biggest gambles in our lives. Even the most devout individuals who attend church every week, guided by a faith that considers divorce a sin, only make the right choice 75% of the time. Meanwhile, the general population manages to get it right just 50 to 60% of the time. It’s astonishing how much of a gamble we take, isn’t it? Imagine the risks we take in other areas of our lives, from deciding on career paths to predicting the victor of the Bear/Packer game next weekend. It’s no wonder casinos boast such enormous profit margins from their products!

I am fully aware that belief that we should always evaluate probabilities when gambling, and that everything is a gamble, could be condemned as morally reprehensible by some. Yet, I find a profound sense of peace in what I have learned. This is rooted in my conviction that gambling doesn’t inherently spiral into addiction, provided one truly comprehends its essence. Having delved into the studies of addiction, I am acutely aware of its devastating consequences. However, I also recognize that addiction’s insidious grip can surface in myriad forms, extending far beyond merely stigmatized behaviors. In fact, numerous everyday activities, widely accepted and even celebrated, can wreak havoc on individuals and devastate families.

I’ve witnessed people so consumed by their obsession with football that they pour thousands of dollars into NFL season tickets every year, all while their children’s athletic dreams hang by a thread, dependent on the charity of youth booster groups. I’ve seen tobacco addicts blatantly ignore the mountain of evidence screaming that their habit is a ticking time bomb, not just for their health but for the mental and physical well-being of everyone they claim to love. Alcoholics lash out at those closest to them, clinging to the delusion that only booze can bring them joy. Technology addicts are relentless in their pursuit of the newest phones, cars, computers, video games, and televisions, yet somehow they never find the time to share a simple storybook with their kids. I’ve even encountered market analysts who are so enslaved by their addiction to investing that they gamble away their fortunes and risk plunging their entire family into financial ruin.

I have seen firsthand the catastrophic destruction wreaked by unrestrained addiction in all its guises. Regardless of its form, addiction can obliterate lives and drag individuals into a bottomless abyss of despair. Some might argue that gambling is merely another addiction, but I contend that the very term is part of the insidious problem. To me, gambling is an all-consuming force that infiltrates every facet of our daily existence—from the deliberate choices we make and the calculated risks we take, to the goods we buy and the opportunities we invest in, or even the electrifying entertainment we dare to indulge in. Its allure is like a vice grip, its consequences devastating and far-reaching, transforming life into an unending battle against its relentless pull.

Once you have absorbed the raw unfiltered truths about gambling there will be no escaping the realization that every single person you cross paths with is a gambler. This relentless force infiltrates every aspect of our existence. By acknowledging its power, we can seize an advantage and expand our possibilities. If you remain skeptical, I will be utterly astounded.

Why settle for mediocrity when greatness is within your grasp, waiting to be claimed? Why yield to defeat when victory eagerly awaits your arrival? Why ignore those in desperate need when you possess the power to create profound change? Why live a life of scarcity when abundance is there for the taking? Why accept average when you can relentlessly pursue excellence? And why endure suffering when inner peace is just within reach, ready to envelop you? Embracing the unvarnished truth and empowering others to take calculated, data-driven risks rather than succumbing to the chaotic allure of emotional risks fueled by a craving for drama unleashed my potential and set my soul free. It could very well do the same for you.

Many brave souls find themselves wrestling with the perplexing world of gambling, often viewing the labyrinth of game rules as a challenge akin to deciphering ancient hieroglyphs. With the casino’s flashing lights and whirring sounds composing a chaotic yet oddly captivating symphony, each game becomes a delightful dance of chance and strategy. But fear not, for I firmly believe that with some good old-fashioned determination and a sprinkle of practice, anyone can polish their risk-taking skills and find a winning edge in whatever adventure they choose to embark on. Sure, the journey might require a mountain of patience and a steadfast dedication to sharpening those predictive skills while waving goodbye to unfounded beliefs, but hey, what worthwhile pursuit doesn’t demand a bit of commitment? In the end, mastering the art of making informed predictions, even if they occasionally wobble like a jelly on a plate, is crucial for success both in the gambling arena and the grand game of life.

Through thoughtful analysis and a dash of clever thinking, I can predict a rainbow of winning probabilities for any event. Picture this: a simple even money bet, where you wager a dollar with the chance to double your delight. If my calculations show a 60% or higher chance of success, I’ll gleefully place a sensible bet. Yet, many folks hesitate to make such wagers. Why, you ask? Perhaps it’s their pursuit of perfect predictions, a goal that’s as elusive as a cat on a hot tin roof. The thought of losing 40% of the time is enough to send those overly cautious souls scurrying for cover, their fear of risk keeping them snugly nestled in the realm of mediocrity.

If the odds are ever in my favor, much like in the Hunger Games, I’m diving in with the enthusiasm of a kid at a candy store. I picture myself rushing into the chaos, heart racing, fueled by the thrill of “who knows what could happen next!” Meanwhile, there are those who cling to their comfort zones like a cat to a warm laundry basket, convinced that perfection is just within reach if they can avoid every banana peel life throws at them. They sidestep risks like they’re dodging dance moves at a wedding. These folks are either too shy to predict the future with any confidence or so bogged down by worry that they can’t even peek outside their comfort bubble. It’s like watching a bird that won’t leave its cozy nest, even when there’s a party going on just outside. I feel a mix of sympathy and impatience for these cautious creatures, who remind me of penguins dreaming of flight but sticking to their waddle. Fly, you brave little penguins, fly! Or, at the very least, enjoy the slide.

In all honesty, I am acutely aware that I am a gambler. It’s been an intrinsic part of my nature for as long as I can remember, and the same is true for you, whether you recognize it or not!

More to come in Part 3.
The Rollercoaster of Life: Risk, Reward, and Lessons for the Young …. Part One or The Brutal Art of Gambling

May 18, 2025

Life is a wild rollercoaster ride, filled with exciting twists and turns that shape our paths. Yet, many folks are blissfully unaware of this thrilling adventure, stuck in the cozy groove of their everyday lives. By the time they finally realize that life is a bit like a high-stakes game show, it’s often hilariously late in the game. They’ve already made some questionable choices, like picking the wrong door or choosing the mystery box instead of cash. Now, they’re left to navigate the quirky outcomes of mediocrity or, at worst, a comedic disaster. It’s an endless game of poker where the chips are as high as the sky, and folding is not an option. Many think that only the savviest and wittiest players can dance through life’s challenging and amusing landscape, coming out as the champions with the best stories to tell!

Don’t get me wrong. There are countless folks all over the world who find joy without swimming in piles of cash or having a trophy room full of accolades. What’s hilariously ironic to me is that they also jumped onto the roulette wheel of life, maybe without even realizing it, just by chasing a different kind of jackpot. Perhaps they took a wild gamble and decided to prioritize family, culture, charity, religion or kindness over the never-ending rat race for money. But let’s not kid ourselves—they still put something valuable on the line to hit that happiness jackpot.

The individuals who, sadly, never achieved their dreams often stumbled because they didn’t fully understand the level of commitment needed to reach their goals. Some may not have had the knowledge to navigate the complex balance of risks and rewards. Others understood it but perhaps felt too overwhelmed or unmotivated to take action. Regardless of the reason, taking risks was a significant factor in their journey, much like it was a key to success for those who achieved their dreams.

Indeed, taking risks is a powerful and constant force at the heart of everyone’s quest for success. It plays a significant role in decision-making, offering the excitement of new opportunities and the hope of success. At the same time, it can challenge stability, introducing elements of unpredictability and change in the pursuit of one’s aspirations.

Fortune showered me with its favor, steering me toward the perfect people and opportunities at precisely the right times in my life. I was incredibly lucky to break free from the soul-crushing grip of the corporate world at a relatively young age, while many of my colleagues remained ensnared in its relentless clutches. As I surveyed my surroundings a few years ago, I saw too many friends inching closer to Medicare eligibility, still shackled by crushing obligations and responsibilities, their lives dictated by what they “must” do rather than what they desperately longed for. It was a brutal reminder of how fragile luck truly is and how easily it can vanish from our grasp, leaving us all in its wake.

As I look back on my life, my mind is filled with images of over seventy years of friends and colleagues. Each face reflects shared experiences, as we all walked similar paths, attended the same key events, had similar education, and worked in the same companies. However, while many simply absorbed this information as entertainment or fleeting interests, there were a few among us who saw it with striking clarity. We recognized untapped potential, a strategic arsenal to use in the harsh arena of life.

This knowledge was a weapon, a double-edged sword that both excited and frightened me, balanced on the edge of fate. The exhilarating thrill of taking bold risks, aware that a single wrong move could ruin everything, was irresistible. Those of us who thrived on the adrenaline of risk taking, technology, probabilities, data, and the truth/success those elements could provide, questioned whether our insider gambling knowledge would be our salvation or downfall.

My personal gambles were as relentless as a toddler’s quest for candy, and I was constantly flabbergasted by those who couldn’t quite grasp what I thought were the ABCs of risk and reward. Picture this: my grand entrance into the corporate world in 1973. My wife of now 51 years and I will never forget the jaw-drop moment when my first weekly paycheck appeared—a whopping $300. Sure, that was the going rate for an underwriter trainee, but back then, the average home was a bargain at $32,500, compared to today’s wallet-busting $355,000. In those groovy early 70s, I was just beginning to dabble in the art of gambling, blissfully unaware that I was about as clueless as a cat chasing its own tail.

I stayed with my first employer, diligently clawing my way up the corporate ladder, rung by painstaking rung. After a decade of dedication, marked by an average salary increase of over 10% annually, I believed I was thriving, still deeply anchored in the familiar neighborhood where I had spent my childhood. Simply put, I was naively nestled in a comforting cocoon of mediocrity, blissfully unaware of the vast world and opportunities that stretched beyond my immediate horizon.

Then came the great enlightenment, like a light bulb going off in a cartoon character’s head. I dove headfirst into the thrilling world of early computing, probabilities and statistics, because who needs adrenaline when you can have math, right? Reports became my bedtime stories, and soon I could predict risk and reward better than a weatherman predicts rain. I even sacrificed a week of vacation to haunt the Elgin Illinois library, analyzing horse racing results for the Arlington Park racetrack. Yep, I was the nerdy ghost of library past, developing my own “normalized speed ratings”—a crucial skill for anyone who wants to gamble on horses without actually knowing anything about them.

While I was knee-deep in risk assessments and reading Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged” (because who doesn’t want a little philosophical debate with their coffee?), I stumbled upon some interesting studies. One study was as clear as a neon sign in Vegas: changing jobs could rocket your salary increases compared to staying put like a barnacle on a ship. Yes, just one job change could turn into 2 1/2 years of normal career salary growth in a blink of an eye. So, I embraced career gambles like a professional poker player. Now, at the ripe age of 73, my family and I have lived in 12 different homes and 6 cities from coast to coast, each move a nod to my relentless pursuit of opportunity, learning, and the perfect pizza slice in every zip code.

I also found that gambling is deeply embedded in the corporate world, masquerading as seemingly respectable activities. It hides under names like risk-taking, decision-making, purchasing, investing, or underwriting in the insurance sector. Yet, at its heart, it is nothing but gambling. People are perpetually taking risks and placing bets, often oblivious to the fact. Some vehemently deny this gambling reality to preserve their illusion of cultural or business integrity, but this denial only blinds them to the complex intricacies and unspoken “rules” of the high-stakes game they are enmeshed in.

From the gleaming, high-stakes boardrooms of corporate America, to the thunderous, relentless grind of factories where operators sweat over their machines, to the fiercely competitive arenas where athletes push themselves to the brink, to the fervent congregations within religious organizations, to the insidious spread of misinformation wreaking havoc on nutrition and health, to the dazzling, adrenaline-fueled casinos and chaotic sports books, to the gritty, timeworn racetracks scattered across the nation. In all these arenas, the mastery of data translation and the ability to extract patterns from chaos can ignite a chain reaction of triumphant, risk-based decisions. This undeniable truth wields the power to bestow immense advantage or unleash catastrophic consequences.

Tragically, most of the population has squandered vast portions of their lives locked in a relentless game against a cunning few who mastered the art of probability and chance. Unbeknownst to you, you were perpetually ensnared in this competition, pitted against these individuals. They wielded an insurmountable advantage – a treasure trove of truths and insights hidden from your grasp. Did the thought ever cross your mind that your adversaries were armed with a profound understanding that forever eluded you?

To my naive and seasoned corporate executive comrades, those who arrogantly believe they have unlocked all the secrets of life, there is always room for growth. Oh yes, you fierce predators who claw your way to the summit, sacrificing your very essence for the hollow rewards of corporate conquests, battling the sneering intellect and flagrant ignorance of board members, enduring soul-crushing encounters with clueless Wall Street analysts and consultants, and driving yourself to the very edge with relentless 60-hour work weeks – heed my words: my gambling truths are anything but trivial and may carry a gravity you can scarcely fathom.

To my steadfast blue-collar comrades, who might still be grinding away in the twilight of your careers, I present my raw gambling truths as a beacon of hope. Buried within the high-stakes realm of betting and daring risk lies a treasure trove of wisdom potent enough to revolutionize your existence. This profound “body of knowledge” from gambling is infinitely more powerful and transformative than any mundane financial planning course you might be contemplating. So, before you cast it aside as trivial or insignificant, shatter the barriers of doubt and embrace the possibilities that can propel you toward a future ablaze with promise.

Regardless of how brilliant or highly educated you consider yourself, if you fail to grasp that each moment is a high-stakes gamble, you’ll remain oblivious to the razor-sharp skills and profound insights essential for triumph in the ruthless world of high-stakes gambling. Your towering IQ and prestigious degrees won’t shield you from the unforgiving truths of this cutthroat arena. Here, money, power, and adrenaline ignite a relentless fire, and unless you’re prepared to embrace risk and perpetually evolve, you’ll be trampled into oblivion by those who have mastered the brutal art of the probability and risk-taking game. In other words, gambling.

More to come in Part 2.
From Thrill to Despair: The Changing Face of Horse Racing

May 17, 2025

Last night at dinner, friends were asking about horse racing, so on this bright and bustling Preakness Day in 2025, I found myself deep in thought, reflecting on the current state of horse racing in America. Once upon a time, I viewed racing through a lens of romanticism, never daring to imagine myself doing anything more than placing bets on the swift and graceful ponies. But as the years galloped by, I amassed a collection of 89 win circle pictures, each capturing a moment of triumph as the proud owner of a sizable and well-bred stable of thoroughbreds. These victories, along with the 300 times we proudly hit the board, and the successes I was also lucky enough to enjoy as a breeder and stallion owner, have woven a tapestry of cherished memories. It was the fulfillment of a childhood dream, a dream so grand that I could barely fathom it in my younger days when my mom didn’t work or drive and my dad was a struggling Chicago milkman, now realized in vibrant hues of achievement and satisfaction.

With that said, I decided to step away from racing Thoroughbreds five years ago, when I reached the ripe old age of 68. Although I still have a few old geldings leisurely grazing and enjoying their days in the sprawling green pastures of our Kentucky farm, the once irresistible allure of racing Thoroughbreds gradually diminished over time. I certainly became older and less vigorous, but my enthusiasm waned even more as the darker aspects of the racing industry continued to reveal their unpleasant nature. The harsh realities and ethical dilemmas overshadowed the thrill that once fueled my passion.

I had witnessed it all unfold before my eyes. From the clandestine antics behind the scenes to the countless owners, trainers and racetrack executives who blatantly disregarded the well-being of horses, it became more than I could bear. Certainly, there were some genuinely compassionate individuals in the racing world, but the vast majority were mere hobbyists who felt nothing more than bruised pride when one of their steeds broke down. Without a second thought, actual kill trucks would be allowed to roam the backside and horses that could no longer race would be sent off on a grim journey to slaughterhouses in Mexico or Canada. And for those who deny this harsh reality, I urge you to delve into the USDA’s equine “Livestock, Export History” over the past few decades, and then share your thoughts with me!

Currently, the situation in the industry has improved as much of the hidden ugliness has come to light, prompting regulators to finally address some of the murky aspects of horse racing. Meanwhile, audiences have gravitated towards more engaging and aesthetically pleasing forms of entertainment and sports. Naturally, a large segment of the population remains unaware of these developments, as the propaganda surrounding the grand Triple Crown events saturates the media during this season. Despite these changes, horse racing continues to be a sport in decline.

To truly grasp this situation, one only needs to examine the publicly available data from the industry itself. Over the span of the last 25 years, wagering in the United States has plummeted from a substantial 14.3 billion dollars to a mere 11.3 billion dollars, marking a decline of 21.3%. At first glance, this decrease might not appear overly alarming to some. However, when the persistent creep of inflation over that quarter-century is accurately factored in, the drop becomes a staggering 56.7%!

For a more impactful comparison, consider the number of Thoroughbreds that raced in the year 2000. Back then, thoroughbreds were loaded into the starting gates 494 thousand times to race. Fast forward 25 years, and that starter figure has dwindled to just 259 thousand! It’s akin to imagining the NFL shrinking from its current 32-team league to a mere 17 teams. Envision the uproar as stadiums fall silent and cities lose the vibrant economic vitality that such sports bring. Yet, this is precisely what has unfolded as the world of racing continues its relentless decline.

Once upon a time, horse racing occupied an enviable position in the sporting world as it was one of the rare arenas where legal gambling thrived. The thrill of placing bets on sleek, muscular horses thundering down the track was unmatched. However, the world transformed with the advent of internet casinos and widespread sports betting access. Suddenly, a plethora of far more intriguing wagering options became available to the public, capturing their attention. While some of the more forward-thinking racetracks managed to secure political backing to integrate these new forms of betting, many others were not as fortunate. Many failed to adapt while others were forced to subsidize their losses in the racing arena with revenues from casino games and sports betting, merely to keep their heads above water.

Today, despite the flood of racing propaganda, the sport finds itself in dire straits, and each time another blemish is revealed, a little more of racing’s spirit is eroded. Indeed, even the regulation concerning the use of the riding crop and the fine imposed on the jockey of Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty for whipping him too many times two weeks ago underscore the unsightly traditions in racing that have sealed the sport’s fate. (Incidentally, they renamed the whip to a crop years ago in the United States merely to further their agenda.)

Such is truth, and life in the racing industry.
Ten More Times

May 16, 2025

I have made the decision to return to writing daily. Why, you ask? Because I’m uncertain how much longer I have the luxury of doing so. At the ripe age of 73, while in admirable health and among the few septuagenarians who remain blissfully free of prescription medications, I find myself pondering the passage of time. Just the other day, I found myself sitting before my computer, staring blankly at an Excel spreadsheet, feeling like a fool, unable to focus for what felt like an eternity.

In my earlier years, I carved out a distinct niche for myself in the business world as an underwriter. I took the bold step of assuming insurance risks by underwriting large groups of people for healthcare coverage, as well as for other forms of insurance. I set myself apart by leveraging data in ways that others couldn’t fathom.

My affinity for games and technology has always been a defining part of me. I was an early adopter, purchasing one of the first home computers, the Commodore 64, and diving into business applications like VisiCalc, one of the pioneering spreadsheet programs. The hum of technology and the allure of data have always been my companions, guiding my journey through the world of business and beyond.

Long before many of my peers even realized these tools existed, I had not only discovered them but also mastered their programming. With their help, I could deftly select winning horses at the racetracks and confidently place bets on parlay cards with bookies in those earlier days. These tools weren’t just for gambling, though; they revolutionized my work in the insurance industry. They transformed countless tedious manual calculations, those endless sums we used to wrestle with on adding machines and calculators, into seamless automated processes.

Over the years, I had penned tens of thousands of formulas within spreadsheet cells, and yet, here I was, at an impasse. Sitting in front of my computer, I intended to craft a simple formula to assess just how drastically horse racing wagering revenue had declined over the past two decades. I had diligently copied and pasted all the necessary data from the Jockey Club’s publicly available records, but now I sat there, perplexed and uncertain. It was baffling that I couldn’t recall the initial command to inscribe a formula into a cell, especially when this was a task I had performed tens of thousands of times over the past 50 years. How could something so familiar suddenly feel so elusive?

Eventually, I threw in the towel on recalling that straightforward command and turned to Google AI for help, asking how to write the formula. Naturally, the AI reminded me to start with the (= sign). It was unnerving, to say the least. Part of me was relieved to have a solution, but another part of me felt uneasy relying on AI for something so basic. It was a strangely unsettling moment, trust me.

Epiphanies come in all forms, manifesting in unexpected ways and at surprising moments. Such was the case for me, living in the rolling hills of Kentucky at the age of 73. The landscape, with its lush green pastures and gentle, undulating terrain, seemed to whisper secrets of life’s truths. It was amidst this serene beauty that I found myself reflecting on the years gone by, the choices made, and the wisdom gleaned from a lifetime of experiences, and I started to wonder what I was going to forget next.

Recently, my old goat and racehorse companion, yes literally a goat, had passed away at age 16, leaving me with a mix of nostalgia and sadness. Then my best buddy and friend, a black lab named Prince, also died, nearly shattering my heart into pieces. As if that wasn’t enough, after living with us for a while my youngest daughter Sabrina, her husband, their 3-year-old, and their newborn baby decided to move back to Minnesota. I found myself torn between happiness for their new chapter and a horrible ache of missing them. Then old friends and Minnesota neighbors came to visit, and Bill shared his newly published book about his battle with cancer and belief in God, filling me with admiration yet reminding me of life’s fragility. Shortly thereafter, our oldest granddaughter Kali visited with her husband and close friends, bringing joy but also a reminder of how much time had passed since we had seen them. Lastly, we were blessed with the opportunity to watch two of our youngest grandchildren when daughter Brianna and her husband attended a wedding in Nashville, leaving me grateful yet overwhelmed by the constant ebb and flow of emotions.

These seemingly unrelated events all unfolded over the span of two months, yet they intertwined in a way that deeply challenged my usual mindset. On one hand, I found myself pondering whether I would see some of these people again or how many more opportunities I’d have to express my love for them. It seemed like a foolish notion for someone like me, who typically shunned emotional displays, but it lingered persistently in my thoughts. On the other hand, my emotional shortcomings always had me grappling with the realization that there were countless things I had neglected to give or say. The struggle between my usual detachment and these newfound introspections was a constant tug at my conscience.

In my typical fashion as the overly analytical data specialist I had evolved into, I couldn’t help but dive into calculations. At the ripe age of 73, I found myself defying the odds, aware that only about a third of my high school companions were still journeying through life. Meanwhile, our move to the rolling hills of Kentucky six years back had introduced a new chapter as our daughter Tara and her family were settled nearby, but the majority of our relatives and longtime friends remained scattered across the familiar, snow-dusted landscapes of Wisconsin and Minnesota, where memories were etched into the frozen ground.

With a typical life expectancy of 78, we likely had only 5 to 7 years remaining, a thought both grounding and unsettling. We are reasonably healthy now, though my wife narrowly escaped a severe cancer diagnosis just 2 years ago, courageously recovering from ovarian and abdominal cancer. Yet, as I calculated, I realized we might only see some of my cherished relatives and friends perhaps 10 more times, if we are fortunate. This realization is both sobering and oddly motivating, especially as I notice some of my memories and logic seem to be fading.

So, I may get 10 more face-to-face visits with the people I cherish most, but what do I really have to share with them that matters? It’s both amusing and troubling to think about all the things I’ve wanted to say, while I also struggle to remember the lessons I’ve tried to impart. I am torn between the urgency to convey my thoughts and the fear of forgetting them entirely.

I pondered these thoughts as I wandered to the basement and pulled out files, pictures and books I have stored there. As I sat there, lost in contemplation, a sudden wave of determination washed over me. I refused to let the weight of uncertainty and impending forgetfulness crush my spirit. If time was indeed slipping through my fingers like grains of sand, then I would make every moment count. With renewed vigor, I opened a new document on my computer and began to type “Ten More Times”.
Life Lesson from a 72-Year-Old Retiree

February 25, 2025

I’m utterly exhausted from all this single-minded focus, driven by emotions rather than intellect! Honestly, don’t just nod along like a bobblehead or shake your head like a maraca merely because someone has a philosophy you deem the bee’s knees. On the flip side, don’t spiral into utter outrage every time someone you usually disagree with actually says something sensible. Remember, even the most genius and foolish individuals hit the mark on occasion, and, well, can be completely out of touch at other times!

Just this past week, I edited and finalized three chapters of this blog, tackled the tangled web of tax prep, chauffeured my wife to her doctor’s appointment like a retired Uber driver with style, and celebrated with a happy dance when we found out she’s still cancer-free after her epic battle with stage 4 ovarian cancer. As if that wasn’t enough, I was patching and painting the basement, and then turned into a barn-cleaning whirlwind after my horses decided to have a slumber party there during Kentucky’s freakishly recent cold snap.

With that said, and being a reasonably still coherent 72-year-old retiree, I can’t wrap my head around why it’s like pulling teeth for DOGE to get folks, whose salaries are paid with our tax dollars, to spend five measly minutes doing what I made senior execs do every week at staff meetings—simply list the five fabulous feats they accomplished last week, and the five things they plan on accomplishing this week!

Yep, that’s the kind of thing business operators ask business Vice Presidents, with literally millions of dollars of stock options, to do. Frankly, it’s just Business 101 in any “grown-up” office setting, and the out roar around DOGE asking government workers to do this simple thing spells out all we independent political free spirits need to know about how the governmental agencies and departments really operate.

You see, by publicly stating both short term goals and accomplishments people become accountable, not only to their bosses but their peers. They also can be measured comparably because weak goals, and even weaker accomplishments, don’t stack up in the rough and tumble business world.

The mere fact that people refuse to state their goals and accomplishments reveals the massive inefficiency associated with departments and agencies that operate at a 50% pace versus those that are proud of their typical 100% pace. Nothing more needs to be said!
Missing My Loyal Companion: A Tribute to Prince

February 12, 2025

Words fall short of capturing his true essence. If only the strength of love could have anchored him here, but now he’s gone. He was never merely an animal to me; he was a steadfast companion whose very presence became a lifeline I perhaps leaned on too heavily. Day and night, he stood loyally by my side, a constant shadow of comfort and companionship. Now, I find myself grappling with the profound realization of how much I depended on him—a realization that weighs heavily on my heart like a stone.

I reflect on how he always seemed to possess an uncanny ability to understand everything, bringing me a profound sense of peace and kindness, especially during my darkest moments when the world felt like it was closing in. Yet now, I grapple with the quiet times, those moments when his unwavering loyalty was my steadfast anchor in the storm.

Even though he’s no longer with me, his presence lingers in every corner of my life, a bittersweet reminder of the love and companionship I’ve lost. There’s no longer a need to stock up on his favorite treats or patiently wait as he searched for the perfect spot to do his business, but I deeply miss the comforting routines we shared. From the solitary ritual of early morning coffees to the warmth of nighttime cuddles, these moments shaped me in profound ways that I’m only beginning to comprehend.

From the moment I adopted him from the shelter, with his wide, hopeful eyes and wagging tail, to his later years sprinting joyfully around my grandson, his spirit was a vivid, radiant force that perhaps only old men like me can truly appreciate. His love was as deep and unfathomable as the ocean, a boundless well of affection that flowed freely without ever asking for anything in return. In quieter moments, when the house is still and the memories come flooding back, I often ponder if I took his generous nature for granted, not fully realizing the depth of his selfless devotion until it was too late.

Certainly, I understand that Prince might always be seen by many as just another of Papa’s animals, and perhaps to some, this ode might appear to be penned by an overly sentimental old fool or snowflake. But you know what… I simply don’t give a shit because after my wife, my children, my grandchildren and my great grandchildren, Prince was one of the most profound blessings in my long life filled with remarkable experiences.

Though he’s no longer here, a part of me struggles with the decision of whether to let go of the past or hold tight to these treasured memories. They envelop me like a comforting mist, whispering tales of moments we once shared, and I ponder whether they somehow anchor me to a sense of stability amidst the ever-shifting sands of my present life.

This is what life feels like now… a journey without my best friend by my side.
Ben Johnson: The NFL’s Rising Coaching Star

January 28, 2025

The topic at hand is the NFL coaching carousel, and in particular, the new Bear’s head coach Ben Johnson.

As always, I take the opinions of football pundits with a grain of salt. They are often proven wrong by their own predictions, which can be dizzying to keep up with. But why are they so often wrong? It’s because they lack an understanding of predictive analytics and allow irrelevant factors to influence their thinking. Instead of examining actual results, they inject emotional rhetoric into every aspect of their analysis. They give equal weight to a coach’s past playing experience as they do to their fictional notions of motivation. Even when they do consider “coaching” results, it is usually done in broad strokes rather than delving into specific data points. For instance, has any talking head looked into Aaron Glenn’s defensive coaching record for the Detroit Lions? Not likely. But I can tell you why he will fail miserably, just like all the other New York Jets coaches hired by the ignorant owner Woody Stephens

Let it be known, even a sightless bird will occasionally stumble upon a morsel of sustenance. In other words, despite the constant mediocrity and incompetence of owners like the Bear’s George McCaskey, and their habit of hiring joke coaches on the cheap, after fifteen long years without a single playoff appearance they may have finally stumbled upon the elusive prize they so desperately seek.

Ben Johnson is the blazing ray of hope for the blind and misguided McCaskey. With his impeccable coaching abilities, he has produced outstanding results that leave no room for doubt or criticism. Leading the Detroit Lions’ offense with an iron fist, they have dominated the charts as the top-ranked team in yards per game over the past three years. And their consistency is unmatched, never falling below second place in 2023 and 2024, and a still respectable fourth place in 2022. But don’t let these impressive stats distract you from the dismal performance of Detroit’s defense during those same three years – constantly hovering near the bottom of the rankings at 26th in 2021, 23rd in 2023, and dead last at 32nd in 2022. (Yep, Detroit’s defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s chances of success as a head coach in New York are non-existent).

To truly grasp the gravity of these interconnected outcomes, one must delve into the crucial factor of time of possession. Despite boasting a top 5 offense for three consecutive years, Detroit’s defense was barely on the field, yet their opponents still managed to rack up insane yards and scoring. In stark contrast, their abysmal defense struggled to wrestle the ball away from their adversaries, resulting in their own offense suffering from limited possessions. And yet, even with the odds stacked against them, this powerhouse Ben Johnson offensive team still reigned supreme in the league.

The burning question remains: was Ben Johnson truly a mastermind on the field, and just how disastrous was Aaron Glen’s performance? No one can deny their respective successes and failures, but what does that mean for their future as head coaches? My prediction is that Ben Johnson will rise to greatness once again, leading his team to victory with ease. As for Aaron Glenn, I have little faith in his ability to navigate the rough waters of New York as a head coach – joining the ranks of those before him who have failed miserably.

Out of all the coaches in the league, there are only two that I have complete faith in: Pete Carroll, who leads the Las Vegas team, and Mike Vrabel, head coach of the New England squad. These two men have proven themselves time and time again with their exceptional head coaching skills, and I believe they will thrive under more intelligent and capable owners like Robert Kraft and Mark Davis, Davis owns 47% of the Raiders. And let’s not forget about Tom Brady, who is heavily involved in the team’s decisions and even holds a 5% Raider ownership stake. With such a strong combination of leadership and ownership, these teams are destined for success.

The mediocre status quo in Dallas is expected, as Jerry Jones continues to hold the reins of this floundering team. To make matters worse, the team has hired Brian Schottenheimer as head coach. He is an internal yes man hire, and a lackluster offensive coach who helmed the 24th ranked offense for Dallas last year. On the other hand, there may be some hope for the Jaguars with their acquisition of Liam Coen, whose explosive offense led Tampa Bay to a third place ranking in the league last year. Yet, his true potential as a head coach remains uncertain without sufficient data to back it up.

So, Ben Johnson towers above the rest as the clear choice for the best hire. He is followed closely by Pete Carrol, Mike Vrabel, and Liam Coen, leaving the poorly run franchises in New York and Dallas to wallow in their delusions of playoff glory.
Insights on Championship Bets: NFL Trends and Predictions

January 27, 2025

The dust has settled, and if you followed my advice on championship bets, you’re probably swimming in cash right now. The Eagles’ dominant display on the field was no surprise to those who have been following this blog, but for the hapless Commanders, it was a rude awakening. They were ill-prepared for the relentless attacks of the Eagles’ formidable defense, whose ferocity could only be matched by their outstanding strategy.

As for Detroit previously, their feeble attempt at defense was no match for the Commanders’ unrelenting offense. Despite ranking 2nd in time of possession, Detroit’s defense quickly crumbled under the weight of their opponent’s onslaught. In contrast yesterday, the Vic Fangio-led Eagles defense stood tall and impenetrable, cementing their place as the undisputed top defense in the league. Even though their offense only ranked 10th in time of possession, their defense was far and away the best in yards allowed. Now that’s what I call dominance.

It was hilarious as bandwagon folks jumped on with the Commanders. You’ve just got to love these last data point gamblers who constantly help those who rely on systemic evidence get better odds, week after week.

In the midst of all the NFL chaos, the incomparable coach Andy Reid and his elite team execute yet another one score possession victory. But despite their consistent dominance, people still fail to comprehend the true genius behind the Chiefs’ success, so here’s a question that may help you. How did they manage to secure 21-year-old powerhouse Xavier Worthy with the “28th pick” in last year’s draft? And not just any average player – a blazing fast prodigy who shattered records with a jaw-dropping 4.21 at the NFL combine. It’s clear that this organization operates on a level above the rest, and until you can grasp that concept, you’ll never truly understand their greatness.

Lastly, I have to talk about NFL conspiracy nuts. The NFL conspiracy theorists are nothing but foolish, self-absorbed individuals who refuse to accept reality. They cling onto their delusions and concoct wild conspiracies to soothe their fragile egos, refusing to acknowledge the truth. Do they honestly believe that a secret gathering of hundreds of players, coaches, referees, AI video experts, and billionaire owners occurs in some underground cave every year to plan out a script for the entire NFL season? It’s absurd. But then again, in this idiotic world where 2 out of 10 people think it’s quite possible that the Earth is flat, anything is possible.

“Whenever insufficient data exists to support what people think is true, or they are too light minded to comprehend how things actually work, they often invent conspiracies to keep their foolish egos in tact.”

My final advice on the Super Bowl, as of today, the Eagles are 2 point underdogs, and I’d take the Eagles who I think will win by 4.

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